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Flattening the COVID 19 curve in susceptible forest indigenous tribes using SIR model

Adwibowo, A.

2020-05-25 epidemiology
10.1101/2020.05.22.20110254 medRxiv
Show abstract

COVID 19 is a global threat and globally spreading. The international cooperation involving indigenous peoples and local communities is urgently required in joint prevention to control the epidemic. Currently, many indigenous populations are continuing to face COVID 19. This study is concerned about the dynamic of COVID 19 pandemic among indigenous populations living in the remote Amazon rainforest enclaves. Using the Susceptible Infectious Recovered (SIR) model, the spread of the COVID 19 under 3 intervention scenarios (low, moderate, high) is simulated and predicted in indigenous tribe populations. The SIR model forecasts that without intervention, the epidemic peak may reach within 1020 days. Nonetheless the peak can be reduced with strict interventions. Under low intervention, the COVID 19 cases are reduced to 73% and 56% of the total populations. While, in the scenario of high intervention, the COVID 19 peaks can be reduced to values ranging from 53% to 15%. To conclude, the simulated interventions tested by SIR model have reduced the pandemic peak and flattened the COVID 19 curve in indigenous populations. Nonetheless, it is mandatory to strengthen all mitigation efforts, reduce exposures, and decrease transmission rate as possible for COVID 19 containment.

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