Tensions between research and public health: modelling the risks and benefits of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine field trials versus human infection challenge studies.
Heriot, G. S.; Jamrozik, E.; Selgelid, M. J.
Show abstract
BackgroundHuman infection challenge studies (HICS) with SARS-CoV-2 are under consideration as a way of accelerating vaccine development. We evaluate potential vaccine research strategies under a range of epidemic conditions determined, in part, by the intensity of public health interventions. MethodsWe constructed a compartmental epidemiological model incorporating public health interventions, vaccine efficacy trials and a post-trial population vaccination campaign. The model was used to estimate the duration and benefits of large-scale field trials in comparison with HICS accompanied by an expanded safety trial, and to assess the marginal risk faced by HICS participants. ResultsField trials may demonstrate vaccine efficacy more rapidly than a HICS strategy under epidemic conditions consistent with moderate mitigation policies. A HICS strategy is the only feasible option for testing vaccine efficacy under epidemic suppression, and maximises the benefits of post-trial vaccination. Less successful or absent mitigation results in minimal or no benefit from post-trial vaccination, irrespective of trial design. ConclusionsSARS-CoV-2 HICS are the optimal method of vaccine testing for populations maintained under epidemic suppression, where vaccination offers the greatest benefits to the local population.
Matching journals
The top 7 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.
Similar papers in this journal
- Exploring the role of mass immunisation in influenza pandemic preparedness: a modelling study for the UK context 95%
- Modelling the relative benefits of using the measles vaccine outside cold chain for outbreak response 95%
- Predicting immune protection against outcomes of infectious disease from population-level effectiveness data with application to COVID-19 94%
Similar papers in this journal
- The potential health and economic value of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination alongside physical distancing in the UK: transmission model-based future scenario analysis and economic evaluation 93%
- Self-testing and vaccination against COVID-19 to minimize school closure 92%
- Prioritising COVID-19 vaccination in changing social and epidemiological landscapes 91%
Similar papers in this journal
Similar papers in this journal
- Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) vaccines for reducing susceptibility to infection with the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) of SARS-CoV-2 94%
- The impact of introducing meningococcal C/ACWY booster vaccination among adolescents in Germany: a dynamic transmission modelling study 94%
- Comparing alternative cholera vaccination strategies in Maela refugee camp using a transmission model 93%
Similar papers in this journal
- Modelling the Interplay between Responsive Individual Vaccination Decisions and the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 95%
- Evaluating primary and booster vaccination prioritization strategies for COVID-19 by age and high-contact employment status using data from contact surveys 95%
- Estimating measures to reduce the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia to guide a ‘National Plan’ to reopening 94%
"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.