Full-spectrum dynamics of the coronavirus disease outbreak in Wuhan, China: a modeling study of 32,583 laboratory-confirmed cases
Hao, X.; Cheng, S.; Wu, D.; Wu, T.; Lin, X.; Wang, C.
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Vigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions have largely suppressed the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to study the transmission dynamics and evaluate the impact of interventions using 32,583 laboratory-confirmed cases from December 8, 2019 till March 8, 2020, accounting for time-varying ascertainment rates, transmission rates, and population movements. The effective reproductive number R0 dropped from 3.89 (95% credible interval: 3.79-4.00) before intervention to 0.14 (0.11-0.28) after full-scale multi-8 pronged interventions. By projection, the interventions reduced the total infections in Wuhan by 96.5% till March 8. Furthermore, we estimated that 79% (lower bound: 60%) of the total infections were unascertained, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases. The probability of resurgence was 0.22 and 0.10 based on models with 79% and 60% infections unascertained, respectively, assuming interventions were lifted after a 14-day period of no new ascertained infections. These results provide important implications for continuing surveillance and interventions to eventually contain the outbreak.
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