Predicting the Dengue Epidemic in Guangzhou, China by Meteorological Parameter Methods
Chen, J.; Liu, K.-K.; Xiao, H.; Hu, G.; Xiao, X.; Lin, Y.; Yue, Q.; Han, Y.; Mao, X.-F.; Dong, G.-H.; Bu, J.
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This study was aimed to determine dengue season, and further establish a prediction model by meteorological methods. The dengue and meteorological data were collected from Guangdong Meteorological Bureau and Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, respectively. We created a sliding accumulated temperature method to accurately calculate the beginning and ending day of dengue season. Probabilistic Forecast model was derived under comprehensive consideration of various weather processes including typhoon, rainstorm, and so on. We found: 1) The dengue fever season enters when effective accumulated temperature of a continuing 45 days (T45) [≥]0 {degrees}C, and it finishes when effective accumulated temperature of a continuing 6 days (T6) <0 {degrees}C. 2) A Probabilistic Forecast Model for dengue epidemic was established with good forecast effects, which were verified by the actual incidence of dengue in Guangzhou. The Probabilistic Forecast Model provides markedly improved forecasting techniques for dengue prediction.
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