Synchronized travel restrictions across cities can be effective in COVID-19 control
Liu, H.; Bai, X.; Shen, H.; Pang, X.; Liang, Z.; Liu, Y.
Show abstract
The COVID-19 outbreak is under control in China. Mobility interventions, including both the Wuhan lockdown and travel restrictions in other cities, have been undertaken in China to mitigate the epidemic. However, the impact of mobility restrictions in cites outside Wuhan has not been systematically analyzed. Here we ascertain the relationships between all mobility patterns and the epidemic trajectory in Chinese cities outside Hubei Province, and we estimate the impact of local travel restrictions. We estimate local inter-city travel bans averted 22.4% (95% PI: 16.8-27.9%) more infections in the two weeks after the Wuhan lockdown, while local intra-city travel prevented 32.5% (95% PI: 18.9-46.1%) more infections in the third and fourth weeks. More synchronized implementation of mobility interventions would further decrease the number of confirmed cases in the first two weeks by 15.7% (95% PI:15.4-16.0%). This study shows synchronized travel restrictions across cities can be effective in COVID-19 control.
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