Epidemic Trends Analysis And Risk Estimation Of 2019-Ncov Outbreak
Liu, Q.; Li, D.; Liu, Z.; Gao, Z.; Zhu, J.; Yang, J.; Wang, Q.
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Since December 1, 2019, the spread of COVID-19 is increasing every day. It is particularly important to predict the trend of the epidemic for the timely adjustment of the economy and industries. We proposed a Flow-SEHIR model in this paper to perform the trends of 2019-nCoV (COVID-19) in China. The results show that the number of daily confirmed new cases reaches the inflection point on Feb. 6 - 10 outside Hubei. For the maximum of temporal infected cases number, the predicted peak value in China except Hubei was estimated to be 21721 (95% CI: 18764 - 24929). The peak arrival time is on March 3 - 9. The temporal number of patients in most areas of China outside Hubei will peak from March 12 to March 15. The peak values of more than 73.5% provinces or regions in China will be controlled within 1000. According to Flow-SEHIR model and estimations from the data of evacuation of nationals from Wuhan, the real peak cumulative number of patients in Hubei is estimated to be 403481 (95% CI: 143284 - 1166936).
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