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Thorax

BMJ

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Thorax's content profile, based on 32 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.03% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Impact of sputum quality on Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra test results for tuberculosis: A multi-country study

Moe, C. A.; Barua, S.; Vijayan, S.; Andama, A. O.; Bimba, J.; Christopher, D. J.; Luong Dinh, V.; Phan, H.; Theron, G. A.; Worodria, W.; Yu, C.; Kremer, K.; Nahid, P.; Yerlikaya, S.; Denkinger, C.; Cattamanchi, A.; Muyoyeta, M.

2026-04-03 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.04.01.26350003 medRxiv
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Rationale: Sputum-based testing using Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra (Xpert) is the most common molecular testing method for diagnosing tuberculosis (TB). Objectives: To evaluate whether sputum quality influences Xpert positivity and diagnostic accuracy. Methods: We screened consecutive people for presumptive TB in India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, and Zambia as part of the R2D2 TB Network and ADAPT studies. Participants provided 2-3 sputum samples for Xpert and culture reference testing. The quality of the first sputum sample was graded following standardized procedures by trained research staff and used for Xpert testing. We performed logistic regression to evaluate whether sputum grade was independently associated with Xpert positivity, and calculated sensitivity and specificity of Xpert against a culture-based microbiological reference standard (MRS). Measurements and Main Results: Among 1,855 participants, 798 (43%) were female, 348 (19%) were living with HIV (PLHIV), and 1795 (97%) had a cough of [≥]2 weeks. Overall, 313 (17%) had a positive Xpert result. Most sputum samples were salivary (83%). Xpert positivity was lowest among salivary samples (16.1%) and highest among purulent samples (31.2%). After adjusting for demographic and clinical variables, there was no significant association between any sputum grade and Xpert positivity. Xpert sensitivity (salivary: 89%, mucoid: 91%, mucopurulent: 87%, purulent: 100%) and specificity (>98%) were high across sputum grades. Conclusions: Sputum quality was not independently associated with Xpert positivity and Xpert sensitivity was high across all sputum grades. These findings support molecular testing of all sputum samples for TB diagnosis regardless of macroscopic appearance.

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Assessing the efficacy of behaviourally informed invitation messaging in increasing attendance at the NHS Targeted Lung Health Check: A randomised experimental study

Tan, X.; Danka, M. N.; Urbanski, S.; Kitsawat, P.; McElvaney, T. J.; Jundi, S.; Porter, L.; Gericke, C.

2026-04-24 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.12.26350693 medRxiv
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Background: Lung cancer screening can reduce lung cancer mortality through early detection, but uptake of the NHS Targeted Lung Health Check (TLHC) programme remains low. Behaviourally informed invitation messages have been proposed as a low-cost approach to increase attendance, but evidence of their effectiveness in lung cancer screening is mixed. Few intervention studies used evidence-based behaviour change frameworks, and rarely tailored invitation strategies to empirically identified barriers and enablers. Methods: In an online experiment, 3,274 adults aged 55-74 years and with a history of smoking were randomised to see one of four behaviourally informed invitation messages or a control message. Participants then rated their intention to attend a TLHC appointment, and selected barriers and enablers to attending from a pre-defined list, which were classified according to the Theoretical Domains Framework. Invitation messages were mapped to Behaviour Change Techniques using the Theory and Techniques Tool. Message conditions were compared on intention to attend TLHC using bootstrapped ANOVA followed by pairwise comparisons. Exploratory counterfactual mediation analyses examined the role of fear in intention to attend. Results: Behaviourally informed invitation messages did not meaningfully increase intention to attend TLHC compared with the control message. While a GP-endorsed message showed a small potential benefit relative to the other conditions, this finding was not robust after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Participants most frequently reported barriers related to Emotion (particularly fear), Social Influence, and Knowledge, while Beliefs about Consequences emerged as the primary enabler of attendance. Only around half of reported barriers and enablers were addressed by the invitation messages. Exploratory analyses found that fear was associated with lower intention to attend a TLHC appointment, yet none of the behaviourally informed messages appeared to reduce fear compared to the control message. Conclusions: Improving lung cancer screening uptake will likely require invitation messages that directly address emotional concerns, particularly fear, alongside credible recommendations. These findings highlight the importance of systematically aligning invitation message content with empirically identified behavioural influences when designing scalable interventions to improve lung cancer screening uptake.

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Novel risk models based on screening history results and timing of lung cancer diagnosis: Post hoc analysis of the National Lung Cancer Screening Trial

Haddan, S.; Waqas, A.; Rasool, G.; Schabath, M. B.

2026-04-14 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.12.26350705 medRxiv
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Background: Our group previously reported that lung cancer (LC) screening history results and subsequent timing of diagnosis are associated with significant differences in survival outcomes. As a follow-up study, we sought to develop novel personalized risk models that considered screening history for incidence cancers, interval LCs, and prevalence LCs. Methods: Using data from the CT-arm of the NLST, four independent case-control analyses were conducted to develop parsimonious risk models. Controls (n=26,038) were those never diagnosed with LC. The four LC case groups were 270 prevalence LCs, 44 interval LCs, 206 screen-detected LCs (SDLCs) that had a baseline positive screen, and 164 SDLCs that had a baseline negative screen. For each case-control analysis, univariable analyses identified statistically significant covariates from 48 variables and then significant covariates were included into a stepwise backward selection approach to identify a model with the most informative covariates. Results: For prevalence LCs, the model (AUC=0.711) included age, pack-years smoked, BMI, smoking status, smoking onset age, personal history of cancer, family history of LC, alcohol consumption, and milling occupation. For interval LCs, the model (AUC=0.734) included age, smoking status, smoking onset age, cigar smoking, marital status, and asbestos occupation. For baseline positive SDLCs, the model (AUC=0.685) included age, pack-years smoked, BMI, emphysema, chemicals/plastics exposure, and milling occupation. For baseline negative SDLCs, the model (AUC=0.701) included age, pack-years smoked, BMI, smoking status, emphysema, sarcoidosis, and sandblasting occupation. Conclusions: Besides smoking and age, which are inclusion criteria for screening, these models identified other important risk factors which could be used to provide personalized LC risk assessment and screening management.

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Pathotypr: harmonised MTBC lineage assignment and resistance-associated variant detection for genomic surveillance

Ruiz-Rodriguez, P.; Coscolla, M.

2026-03-27 genomics 10.64898/2026.03.24.714002 medRxiv
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BACKGROUNDRapid, interoperable whole-genome tools for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) surveillance remain limited for harmonised lineage assignment across recognised lineages and simultaneous resistance-associated variant detection. AIMTo develop and validate Pathotypr, an alignment-free tool for harmonised MTBC lineage assignment and resistance genotyping from assemblies and raw reads. METHODSWe reconstructed an MTBC phylogeny from 26,813 genomes using 609,003 polymorphic sites, derived an updated lineage marker backbone, and implemented a k-mer/Random Forest framework with marker-based lineage and WHO catalogue-based resistance calling. Performance was evaluated on 498 RefSeq assemblies, 88,071 UShER-TB typed sequencing samples, 162 clinical read sets for closest-reference matching, and 7,148 CRyPTIC isolates with phenotypic drug susceptibility data. RESULTSPathotypr supported all 14 currently recognised MTBC lineages (L1-L10, A1-A4). On 498 complete genomes, marker-based and alignment-free lineage calls were 100% concordant, and prediction accuracy remained 100% on 254 independent assemblies. In 88,071 non-ambiguous UShER-TB samples, root-lineage concordance with TB-Profiler was 100%, while Pathotypr additionally identified lineage 10, A1 and A2. Resistance predictions showed 85.0% genotype-phenotype concordance overall, with high performance for rifampicin (95.8% sensitivity, 95.0% specificity) and isoniazid (93.0%, 97.9%). Runtime was about 1 second per sample, enabling analysis of 88,071 samples in approximately 24 hours on four threads. In the MDR-enriched CRyPTIC collection, Pathotypr supported reconstruction of 135 probable introduction events into Germany, Italy and Ukraine; 33.7% of introduction-associated isolates carried MDR/pre-XDR genotypes. CONCLUSIONPathotypr enables rapid, harmonised MTBC lineage assignment and high-confidence resistance screening, supporting near real-time and cross-border tuberculosis surveillance.

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Development and validation of a machine learning model for community-based tuberculosis screening among persons aged >= 15 years in South Africa and Zambia

Zimmer, A. J.; Loharja, H.; Fentahun Muchie, K.; Koeppel, L.; Ayles, H.; Castro, M. d. M.; Christodoulou, E.; Fox, G. J.; Gaeddert, M.; Hamada, Y.; Isaacs, C.; Kapata, N.; Chanda-Kapata, P.; Karimi, K.; Kasese, N.; Kerkhoff, A.; Law, I.; Maier-Hein, L.; Marx, F. M.; Maimbolwa, M. M.; Moyo, S.; Mthiyane, T.; Muyoyeta, M.; Rocklöv, J.; Schaap, A.; Yerlikaya, S.; Opata, M.; Denkinger, C. M.

2026-04-04 public and global health 10.64898/2026.03.30.26349632 medRxiv
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Introduction: Current tuberculosis (TB) screening tools, such as the WHO four-symptom screen (W4SS), lack sufficient sensitivity and specificity for effective community-based active case finding, contributing to both missed diagnoses and unnecessary diagnostic evaluations. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model to improve TB risk prediction among persons aged >=15 years in community settings of Zambia and South Africa. Methods: A large, harmonized dataset was created from four community-based TB prevalence surveys in South Africa and Zambia (N=169,813), restricted to individuals not under treatment at the time of survey. A binary reference outcome was defined based on available microbiological and radiographic data, grouping individuals as either 'Possible TB' or 'Unlikely TB'. An XGBoost model was trained on 80% (N=135,854) of the data using demographic, clinical, and socio-economic variables, and model interpretability was assessed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. Internal validation was performed using a 20% hold-out test set (N=33,959). Model performance was assessed using discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility measures compared to the W4SS and against WHO's 2025 Target Product Profile (TPP) for a tool in a two-step screening algorithm. Results: Overall, 16,413 (9.7%) of individuals were labelled as 'Possible TB'. On the test set, the XGBoost model yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 79.7% (95% CI: 78.7, 80.7), outperforming the W4SS (AUC 57.0%; 95% CI: 56.1, 57.8). The XGBoost model achieved 81.5% sensitivity (95% CI: 77.6, 84.9) at a 60% specificity threshold. This exceeded the W4SS, which achieved only 38.2% sensitivity (95% CI: 36.5, 39.9) on the same dataset. SHAP analysis identified age, previous TB treatment, times treated for TB and unemployment as the primary contributors to risk. Conclusion: The ML XGBoost model shows promise as a screening tool to support community-based active case finding activities prior to diagnostic testing. However, as performance remained below TPP targets, and adding variables, e.g. on geolocation, could be considered.

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Can home spirometry and FeNO testing improve asthma diagnosis? a feasibility study

Wang, R.; Thompson, A.; Bennett, M.; Simpson, A.; Fowler, S. J.; Durrington, H. J.; Murray, C. S.

2026-04-17 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.04.16.26351022 medRxiv
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Introduction: Although temporal variation is the hallmark of asthma, recommended diagnostic approaches largely rely on single clinic-based measurements. Ambulatory monitoring captures diurnal and day-to-day variability and may therefore enhance diagnostic accuracy. We evaluated the clinical feasibility and potential utility of home spirometry and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) monitoring in asthma diagnosis. Methods: Symptomatic, untreated adults with GP-suspected asthma underwent diagnostic tests including bronchodilator reversibility, in-clinic FeNO, blood eosinophil counts and bronchial challenge. Participants measured spirometry and FeNO four times daily over one week; during the second week spirometry were measured twice daily. The reference standard was provided (asthma/not-asthma) by an expert panel of at least two asthma specialists based on clinical history and the results of all in-clinic testing; home spirometry (except for peak expiratory flow) and FeNO measurements were blinded to the panel. Results: Of 67 eligible participants, 51(76%) were recruited, and 38 had asthma confirmed or excluded by the panel. 1058 home spirometry measurements were obtained from 37(73%) participants; 848 home FeNO readings were obtained from 39(76%) participants. Among those completing at least one home measurement, median (IQR) adherence was 66.7(58.6-97.6)% for spirometry and 78.5(51.8-103.6)% for FeNO. Collection of health impact data for economic evaluation was feasible. In participants with a confirmed diagnostic outcome who completed home measurements (FeNO: n=32; spirometry: n=28), the putative home-testing metrics demonstrated high sensitivities at [≥]90% specificity, and outperformed peak expiratory flow diurnal variability. Incorporating home testing into the BTS/NICE/SIGN 2024 diagnostic pathway had the potential to reduce reliance on bronchial challenge testing by 57%. Conclusions: Home spirometry and FeNO testing and the prospective collection of health-economic data in the diagnostic setting were feasible. Home-based testing strategy showed early potential to improve asthma diagnosis and pathway efficiency. These findings support further evaluation through an adequately powered diagnostic accuracy study and health-economic assessment.

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Targeting the DNA damage repair protein RAD51 alters fibroblast metabolism and enhances apoptosis in pulmonary fibrosis

Maurya, R. K.; Sharma, A. K.; Schaefbauer, K. J.; Ma, L.; Koenitzer, J. R.; Limper, A.; Choudhury, M.

2026-04-04 cell biology 10.64898/2026.04.01.715935 medRxiv
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BackgroundIdiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and fatal lung disease characterized by aberrantly activated, apoptosis-resistant profibrotic lung (myo)fibroblasts. Prior research has demonstrated that lung fibroblasts from patients with IPF exhibit resistance to DNA damage, suggesting that this behavior contributes to their persistent survival and continuous proliferation. We propose that elevated levels of the DNA damage repair protein RAD51 regulate myofibroblast activation and apoptosis and provide a potential therapeutic target to impede fibrosis progression. MethodsHuman lung fibroblasts were transfected with siRNA against RAD51 or treated with RAD51-specific inhibitor B02 and markers of fibrosis, DNA damage, apoptosis, metabolic reprogramming, and mitochondrial dynamics were assessed. The preclinical efficacy of B02 was evaluated in human precision cut lung slices (PCLS) and in a mouse model of pulmonary fibrosis. FindingsRAD51 expression was significantly upregulated in the lungs and lung fibroblasts of IPF patients. Knockdown or inhibition of RAD51 in fibroblasts reduced profibrotic marker expression, suppressed mTORC1 signaling and mitochondrial function, and increased apoptosis susceptibility. Pharmacological inhibition of RAD51 shifted the profibrotic phenotype towards a fibrosis-resolving state in human and mouse PCLS, and in a bleomycin-induced mouse model of lung fibrosis. InterpretationThe inhibition of RAD51 exerts therapeutic benefits in lung fibrosis by promoting apoptosis. Our findings identify that inhibiting RAD51 with B02 in fibroblasts impairs DNA repair and induces metabolic reprogramming, making it a potential therapeutic target. Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSPulmonary fibrosis (PF) is characterized by excessive fibroblast activation and subsequent deposition of extracellular matrix (ECM) proteins, which ultimately disrupt normal lung architecture. A significant contributing factor to the pathogenesis of pulmonary fibrosis is the presence of fibroblasts that are resistant to apoptosis, preventing normal wound healing. Recent studies highlight the DNA repair protein RAD51 as effective in protecting fibroblasts from death induced by chemotherapy and ionizing radiation. These finding suggested that RAD51 could have a role in fibroblast activation and apoptosis resistance in pulmonary fibrosis. Added value of this studyWe demonstrated that RAD51 is important for maintaining apoptosis-resistant fibrotic fibroblasts and their metabolic abnormalities. Our findings indicated that TGF{beta}-mediated upregulation of RAD51 reduces DNA damage, activates multiple pathways related to fibroblast activation and proliferation, and induces metabolic reprogramming, ultimately regulating apoptosis. Mechanistically, RAD51 inhibition enhanced p53 acetylation at lysine 120 and upregulated the expression proapoptotic proteins PUMA/BAK in mitochondria, promoting apoptosis. Pharmacological inhibition of RAD51 using the specific inhibitor B02 during the fibrotic phase of experimental lung disease effectively ameliorated pulmonary fibrosis. Implications of all the available evidenceOur findings establish that RAD51 plays an important role in the survival of apoptosis-resistant fibrotic fibroblasts. We propose that reducing RAD51 expression leads to the metabolic reprogramming of activated fibroblasts, resulting in decreased mitochondrial respiration, reduced ATP levels, and diminished glycolysis or glutaminolysis. These observations suggest that targeting energy metabolism through RAD51 inhibition could be a viable strategy to enhance apoptosis, thereby creating a therapeutically targetable pathway in fibrotic cells. These findings highlight the potential of RAD51 as a therapeutic target for the treatment of IPF.

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The effect of sedentary behaviour and physical activity on 1719 diseases: a Mendelian randomisation phenome-wide association study (MR-PheWAS)

Xu, J.; Parker, R. M. A.; Bowman, K.; Clayton, G. L.; Lawlor, D. A.

2026-04-14 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.10.26350507 medRxiv
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Background Higher levels of sedentary behaviour, such as leisure screen time (LST), and lower levels of physical activity are associated with diseases across multiple body systems which contribute to a large global health burden. Whether these associations are causal is unclear. The primary aim of this study is to investigate the causal effects of higher LST (given greater power) and, secondarily, lower moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA), on a wide range of diseases in a hypothesis-free approach. Methods A two-sample Mendelian randomisation phenome-wide association study was conducted for the main analyses. Genetic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were first selected as exposure genetic instruments for LST (hours of television watched per day; 117 SNPs) and MVPA (higher vs. lower; 18 SNPs) based on the genome-wide significant threshold (p < 5*10-8) from the largest relevant genome-wide association study (GWAS). For disease outcomes, we used summary results from FinnGen GWAS, including 1,719 diseases defined by hospital discharge International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes in 453,733 European participants. For the main analyses, we used the inverse-variance weighting method with a Bonferroni corrected p-value of p [&le;] 3.47*10-4. Sensitivity analyses included Steiger filtering, MR-Egger and weighted median analyses, and data from UK Biobank were used to explore replication. Findings Genetically predicted higher LST was associated with increased risk of 87 (5.1% of the 1,719) diseases. Most of these diseases were in musculoskeletal and connective tissue (n=37), genitourinary (n=12) and respiratory (n=8) systems. Genetic liability to lower MVPA was associated with six diseases: three in musculoskeletal and connective tissue and genitourinary systems (with greater risk of these diseases also identified with higher LST), and three in respiratory and genitourinary systems. Sensitivity analyses largely supported the main analyses. Results replicated in UK Biobank, where data available. Conclusions Higher levels of sedentary behaviour, and lower levels of physical activity, causally increase the risk of diseases across multiple body systems, making them promising targets for reducing multimorbidity.

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Diagnostic performance of fractional exhaled nitric oxide for asthma in children

Sasaki, M.; Goutaki, M.; de Jong, C. C. M.; Heer, P.; Regamey, N.; Moeller, A.; on behalf of the SPAC Study Team, ; Kuehni, C. E.

2026-04-17 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.04.16.26351005 medRxiv
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Background Recent guidelines differ in how fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) is used to diagnose school-age asthma, either as one of several tests with a cut-off at 25 ppb or as a single rule-in test at 35 ppb. Evidence on its diagnostic performance and clinical utility in subgroups remain limited. Methods We analysed data from 1,979 school-age children in the Swiss Paediatric Airway Cohort referred for suspected asthma. We investigated FeNO performance with diagnosis by paediatric pulmonologists as reference standard using receiver operating characteristics curves, selected cut-offs and simulated predictive values across different prevalence. Subgroup analyses considered allergic sensitisation with allergic rhinitis and current inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) use. Results In the overall cohort (asthma diagnosis 70%), FeNO showed poor discrimination for asthma (AUC 0.66; 95% CI 0.64-0.68) with an optimal cut-off at 22 ppb. At 25 and 35 ppb, sensitivity was low (43%, 95% CI 40-46; 31%, 95% CI 29-34) and specificity moderate to high (84%, 95% CI 77-84; 90%, 95% CI 87-92). Positive predictive value at 35 ppb was 88% and was 57% when simulated at a prevalence of 30%. FeNO had no diagnostic value in non-sensitised children and lower performance in sensitised children with allergic rhinitis than in those without (AUC 0.59 vs 0.68). Current ICS use did not influence performance. Conclusion FeNO has limited diagnostic performance as a stand-alone test for school-age asthma, and underlying asthma prevalence and allergic characteristics should be considered in the interpretation.

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Steroid-Responsiveness in TBX4-Associated Pulmonary Hypertension and Interstitial Lung Disease

Morgan, C.; Calder, A.; Brugha, R.; Quyam, S.; Aurora, P.; McGovern, E.; Bush, A.; Moledina, S.

2026-04-20 respiratory medicine 10.64898/2026.04.19.26350630 medRxiv
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BackgroundTBX4 variants are a recognised cause of paediatric pulmonary hypertension (PH), often associated with interstitial lung disease (ILD). Evidence for ILD-directed therapy in this group is lacking. MethodsWe conducted a retrospective study of children ([&le;]18 years) with TBX4-associated PH at a national centre (2001-2025). ILD was defined using ChILD-EU criteria. Patients treated with pulsed intravenous methylprednisolone were assessed for response using ChILD-EU categories. Secondary outcomes included respiratory severity score (RSS), functional class (FC), echocardiographic measures, and NT-proBNP. ResultsOf 21 children, 11 (52%) had ILD; 9 received corticosteroids. Median age at treatment was 0.8 years. A clear or best response occurred in 7/9 (78%). RSS improved in 6/9 (p=0.02), with all children on respiratory support showing partial or complete weaning. Functional class improved in all with FC III/IV at baseline (p=0.02). Right ventricular function improved (TAPSE z-score +1.65, p=0.04), and elevated NT-proBNP normalised. Key clinical milestones included ECMO weaning, transplant delisting, and discontinuation of prostacyclin therapy. No significant adverse effects were observed. Untreated children showed no early improvement. ConclusionsCorticosteroids were associated with meaningful improvements in respiratory and PH outcomes in TBX4-associated PH with ILD. Prospective evaluation is warranted.

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Distinguishing Relapse from Reinfection in Recurrent Tuberculosis: A Genomic and Epidemiologic Study in Brazil

Santos, P. C. P. d.; Goncalves, T. O.; Cunha, E. A. T.; Walter, K. S.; de Lima, E. L.; Croda, J.; Andrews, J. R.; Goncalves, C. C. M.; da Silva, K. E.

2026-04-08 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.07.26350349 medRxiv
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Background: Tuberculosis recurrence accounts for a substantial proportion of incident tuberculosis in many settings. Distinguishing between its mechanisms can inform public health interventions for prevention. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of individuals with multiple culture-confirmed TB episodes and available sequential isolates from 2012 to 2023 in Dourados and Campo Grande, Mato Grosso do Sul state, Brazil. Patients were classified as having recurrent TB after treatment completion or retreatment following non-curative outcomes. Whole-genome sequencing was used to assess pairwise genetic distances between isolates, classifying relapse or persistent infection ([&le;]12 single-nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs]) versus reinfection or retreatment with reinfection (>12 SNPs). Results: Among 9,293 individuals with TB, 772 recurrent or retreatment episodes were identified. Paired isolates from 82 individuals were available for comparisons. Among individuals who completed treatment, reinfection accounted for 74.1% (40/54) of recurrent episodes, while 25.9% (14/54) were classified as relapse. Among individuals with non-curative outcomes, persistent infection (53.6%, 15/28) and retreatment with reinfection (46.4%, 13/28) occurred at similar frequencies. Persistent infection and relapse occurred earlier after the initial episode, whereas reinfection and retreatment with reinfection predominated after two years. Incarceration history was strongly associated with reinfection after treatment completion (92.5%, p=0.012) and after non-curative outcomes (76.9%, p=0.016). Conclusions: In this high-burden setting, reinfection drives TB recurrence among individuals who complete treatment, particularly at longer intervals after initial disease, reflecting sustained exposure risk. Relapse and persistent infection remain clinically important, especially following non-curative outcomes. These findings underscore the need for integrated strategies combining adherence support to prevent treatment-related recurrence with interventions to reduce transmission, particularly in high-risk settings.

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Tongue swab-based Targeted Universal Tuberculosis Testing in people living with HIV in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

Olson, A. M.; Wood, R. C.; Sithole, N.; Govender, I.; Grant, A. D.; Smit, T.; David, A.; Stevens, W.; Scott, L.; Drain, P. K.; Cangelosi, G. A.; Shapiro, A. E.

2026-04-25 public and global health 10.64898/2026.04.17.26351084 medRxiv
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Background. Targeted Universal Tuberculosis Testing (TUTT) may increase tuberculosis (TB) case detection by including people who are not actively seeking TB care but are at high risk of the disease. Non-invasive tongue swab (TS) testing may facilitate TUTT. We evaluated two TS testing protocols in people with HIV (PWH) tested irrespective of TB symptoms. Methods. Study staff collected Copan FLOQSwab and Medline foam swab specimens, alongside urine and sputa, from PWH, most of whom were presenting for antiretroviral therapy initiation at primary healthcare clinics in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. FLOQSwabs were tested by sequence-specific magnetic capture (SSMaC) with qPCR (FLOQSwab-SSMaC). Foam swabs were tested by centrifuge-sedimentation and high-volume qPCR (foam-sedimentation). Urine lipoarabinomannan was detected using LF-LAM. The extended microbiological reference standard (eMRS) comprised any positive result on Xpert Ultra and/or liquid culture of sputum. Results. We enrolled 251 participants (median age 34 years, 56% female, 67% with self-reported TB symptoms). Participants had a median CD4 count of 347 cells/ul, and 16% (40/251) had prior TB. FLOQSwab-SSMaC was 43% sensitive (13/30) and 100% specific (131/131) relative to eMRS. Foam-sedimentation was 47% (9/29) sensitive and 100% (176/176) specific. Sensitivity increased to 52% (FLOQSwab-SSMaC) and 50% (foam-sedimentation) when sputum Xpert Ultra Trace positive results were excluded from eMRS. TS was more sensitive than urine LAM, and both sample types were more sensitive when CD4 counts were below 200. Discussion. TS testing detected about half of PWH with TB and outperformed urine LAM within this population, including among PWH with low CD4 counts.

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Therapist effects in real-world rehabilitation outcomes: a cohort study of the nationwide GLA:D osteoarthritis management program in Denmark

Obasohan, P. E.; Palmer, J.; Alderson, D.; Yu, D.; Gronne, D. T.; Roos, E. M.; Skou, S. T.; Peat, G. M.

2026-04-21 rehabilitation medicine and physical therapy 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351120 medRxiv
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ObjectiveUnlike several other fields of healthcare, little is known about the size of therapist effects on patient outcomes following rehabilitation for musculoskeletal conditions. We aimed to estimate the proportion of variance in patient outcomes from a structured rehabilitation program explained by therapist effects. MethodsFor our observational cohort study we accessed data from the national multicentre Good Life with osteoArthritis in Denmark (GLA:D) osteoarthritis management program. Analyses included 23,021 consecutive eligible adults with hip or knee osteoarthritis (mean (SD) age 65.0 (9.8) years, 71% female) treated by 657 therapists between October 2014 and February 2019. The primary outcome was [&ge;]30% reduction in pain intensity on 0-100 VAS at 3 months. Therapist effects were estimated as the variance partition coefficient (intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC)) from two-level random intercept logistic regression models before and after adjusting for patient-level case-mix factors and therapist-level characteristics (number of patients treated, days since therapist certification). Analyses were repeated for a range of secondary outcomes using multiply imputed data and complete-case analysis. Results52% of patients reported a [&ge;]30% reduction in pain intensity on 0-100 VAS at 3 months. In the null model the ICC was 0.007 (95%CI: 0.005, 0.009), which changed little after adjusting for patient- and therapist-level covariates. Upper confidence limits for ICC estimates across all secondary outcomes in multiply imputed and complete case analyses were less than 0.03. ConclusionsIn a nationally implemented osteoarthritis management program delivered by trained healthcare professionals, therapist effects made a minimal contribution to variation in patient outcomes. KEY MESSAGESO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABS Therapist effects - defined as the effect of a given therapist on patient outcomes as compared to another therapist - have been observed in several fields of healthcare and have important consequences for selection, training, and service improvement. In musculoskeletal rehabilitation five previous studies suggest that 1-12% of variation in patient-reported outcomes may be attributable to therapist effects, but these estimates were based on relatively small datasets resulting in substantial uncertainty. What this study addsOur cohort study analysed registry data from 2014-2019 on 23,021 patients and 647 trained therapists from the nationally implemented GLA:D structured osteoarthritis management program in Denmark. We found that therapist effects accounted for less than 3% of total variation in patient-reported pain and quality of life outcomes 3 months after beginning the program How this study might affect research, practice, or policyOur findings suggest that contextual factors that relate to therapist effects - therapist characteristics or therapist-patient interaction and alliance - make a minimal contribution to variation in patient outcomes from this structured, group-based rehabilitation intervention. Any contextual effects must be attributable to alternative sources, e.g. patient expectations, intervention setting.

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Improving walking after lumbar spinal stenosis surgery: co-design and single-arm feasibility trial of the STructured Rehabilitation and InDividualised Exercise and Education (STRIDE) programme

McIlroy, S.; Bearne, L.; McCarter, A.; McPherson, C.; Chaplin, H.; Brighton, L. J.; Weinman, J.; Norton, S.

2026-03-31 rehabilitation medicine and physical therapy 10.64898/2026.03.28.26349602 medRxiv
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Background: Lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS) can cause pain and severe walking limitation. Although surgery aims to improve walking, many patients do not achieve clinically meaningful gains. Rehabilitation can improve outcomes, yet existing programmes lack robust evidence and theoretical underpinning. This study aimed to (1) co-design a theory-informed rehabilitation programme to improve walking after LSS surgery, and (2) evaluate feasibility of conducting a future trial and acceptability of the intervention. Methods: A multi-methods study included intervention co-design followed by a single-arm feasibility study. Co-design used an adapted Experience-Based Co-Design approach with patients, carers, and healthcare professionals (n=39), integrating the Behaviour Change Wheel. This resulted in STructured Rehabilitation and InDividualised Exercise and Education (STRIDE), delivered over 12-week pre- and 12-weeks post-surgery, targeting knowledge, expectations, perceived control, physical capability, and fears. Adults aged [&ge;]50 years awaiting LSS surgery were recruited to a before-after feasibility study. Feasibility outcomes included recruitment and retention. Acceptability was assessed using the Theoretical Framework of Acceptability questionnaire (0-5 (high acceptability)) and focus groups. Clinical outcomes measured at baseline, post-prehabilitation, and post-rehabilitation included 6-minute walk distance (6MWD) and mean daily step count over 7 days. Results: Fifteen of 31 eligible participants were recruited (48%; mean age 70 years), with 80% retained to study end (2 decided against surgery, 1 unable to complete final assessment). Acceptability was high (median 5/5, IQR 0). Participants valued the personalised, supportive approach and reported improved motivation and preparation for surgery, though travel was burdensome. Small pre-operative and moderate-to-large post-operative improvements were observed in 6MWD (+49.9 m and +81.6 m) and daily step count (+868 and +1405 steps/day). Conclusions: This co-designed, physiotherapy-led, behaviour-change rehabilitation programme was acceptable to participants, with encouraging recruitment, retention, and signals of improved walking following LSS surgery. The findings support progression to a future trial.

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Cross-ancestry evaluation of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis genetic risk variants

Nabunje, R.; Guillen-Guio, B.; Hernandez-Beeftink, T.; Joof, E.; Leavy, O. C.; International IPF Genetics Consortium, ; Maher, T. M.; Molyneux, P.; Noth, I.; Urrutia, A.; Aburto, M.; Flores, C.; Jenkins, R. G.; Wain, L. V.; Allen, R. J.

2026-04-25 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.04.17.26349970 medRxiv
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Genome-wide association studies of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) have identified 35 common genetic risk loci associated with IPF susceptibility. In this study, we evaluated the effects of the reported variants in clinically curated non-European individuals. Despite limited sample sizes, we observed partial replication, limited transferability of some variants and evidence of ancestry-specific effects. The MUC5B promoter variant rs35705950 emerged as the dominant and most consistent signal across ancestries. Our findings highlight the need for larger, well-characterised studies in understudied populations to support robust discovery and translation.

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Multi-Ancestry Epigenome-Wide Meta-Analysis Identifies Novel Bulk and Cell-Type-Specific Epigenetic Markers of Asthma with Severe Exacerbations

Perez-Garcia, J.; Martin-Gonzalez, E.; Chen, Z. J.; Martin-Almeida, M.; Witonsky, J.; Gorla, A.; Eng, C.; Lorenzo-Diaz, F.; Bozack, A. K.; Elhawary, J.; Hu, D.; Huntsman, S.; Gonzalez-Perez, R.; Hernandez-Perez, J. M.; Poza-Guedes, P.; Mederos-Luis, E.; Sanchez-Machin, I.; Rodriguez-Santana, J.; Villar, J.; Rifas-Shiman, S. L.; Hivert, M.-F.; Oken, E.; Gold, D. R.; Ziv, E.; Rahmani, E.; Gonzalez Burchard, E.; Cardenas, A.; Pino-Yanes, M.

2026-04-18 allergy and immunology 10.64898/2026.04.16.26350345 medRxiv
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Background: Extreme-phenotype comparisons allowed the discovery of novel asthma genetic risk loci. However, this approach remains unexplored in epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS). We aimed to identify bulk and cell-specific methylation markers of asthma with severe exacerbations across diverse ancestry groups. Methods: We conducted a meta-EWAS of 739,543 CpGs in whole blood among 1,192 African American and Latino pediatric populations, comparing non-asthmatics and asthma exacerbators. Genome-wide CpGs were followed up for replication in a meta-analysis across 1,516 ethnically diverse participants and in a cross-tissue evaluation of 393 nasal samples. We conducted differentially methylated region (DMRs), cell-type-deconvoluted, and quantitative trait loci analyses (whole-genome sequencing n=1,668; RNA-seq n=1,209). We examined enrichment in traits, pathways, and druggable genes, and analyzed DNAm predictors of plasma proteins and aging. Results: DNAm at 505 CpGs and 119 DMRs in whole blood were associated with asthma exacerbations (p<9x10-8, {lambda}=1.05). We replicated 25 CpGs in blood cells, cross-validated 7 in nasal samples, and detected 42 cell-specific DNAm markers mainly driven by T cells. DNAm at 134 CpGs was associated with gene expression in whole blood, including 118 associations with T-cell receptor genes, and 446 CpGs were regulated by [&ge;]1 genetic variant. We found enrichment for previous associations with environmental exposures, immune disorders, immune and inflammatory pathways, and druggable genes by developmental drugs. 21 methylation-predicted plasma proteins, involved in host defense, and one lung aging clock were associated with asthma exacerbations. Conclusions: The first meta-EWAS of extreme asthma phenotypes identified hundreds of novel DNAm markers, suggesting novel methylation biomarkers and candidate drugs for asthma and supporting the role of T cells.

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Extracellular Vesicle microRNAs From Small Airways Promote Senescence and Fibrosis in COPD

Devulder, J. V.; Fenwick, P. S.; Monkley, S.; Odqvist, L.; Donnelly, L. E.; Barnes, P. J.

2026-03-31 cell biology 10.64898/2026.03.30.713627 medRxiv
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BackgroundChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a chronic lung condition characterised by accelerated lung aging. Extracellular vesicles (EVs), which can be categorised into large EVs (LEVs) and small EVs (SEVs), may play a critical role in intercellular communication. They contribute to the pathogenesis of COPD by transporting and transferring microRNAs (miRNAs). This study profiles cells and EV-associated miRNAs from both healthy and COPD small airway (SA)-epithelial cells and SA-fibroblasts and identifies the biological pathways associated with these miRNAs. MethodsEVs were isolated from conditioned media of healthy and COPD SA-epithelial cells and SA-fibroblasts, both at baseline and following H2O2 exposure. MiRNAs were extracted from cells and EVs and analysed by small RNA (smRNA) sequencing. ResultsSmRNA sequencing of COPD SA-epithelial cells and EVs revealed that four miRNAs were upregulated and fourteen were downregulated in the cells compared to healthy controls. COPD LEVs displayed nine upregulated and ten downregulated miRNAs, while SEVs showed ten upregulated and eleven downregulated miRNAs. Only one miRNA consistently upregulated in COPD SA-epithelial cells, LEVs, and SEVs. The various differentially expressed miRNAs were primarily associated with cellular senescence pathways. In SA-fibroblasts 39 miRNAs were upregulated in COPD compared to healthy cells. 14 miRNAs were upregulated in COPD LEVs and 11 downregulated, whereas SEVs exhibited twenty upregulated and eleven downregulated miRNAs. Overlap was limited, with only three miRNAs consistently upregulated in SA-fibroblasts and EVs. These miRNAs were linked to pathways related to fibrosis and cellular senescence. Furthermore, oxidative stress alters the miRNA profiles detected in cells and EVs differently between cells from healthy individuals and COPD patients. ConclusionsCOPD alters miRNA signatures in cells and their EVs, with limited overlap between compartments. These COPD-associated miRNAs are enriched in pathways driving cellular senescence and fibrosis, suggesting a potential role in disease progression.

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Polygenic risk scores enhance the identification of carriers of monogenic forms of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Alonso-Gonzalez, A.; Jaspez, D.; Lorenzo-Salazar, J. M.; Delgado, A.; Quintero-Bacallado, A.; Ma, S.-F.; Strickland, E.; Mychaleckyj, J.; Kim, J. S.; Huang, Y.; Adegunsoye, A.; Oldham, J. M.; Maher, T. M.; Guillen-Guio, B.; Wain, L. V.; Allen, R. J.; Saini, G.; Jenkins, R. G.; Molina-Molina, M.; Zhang, D.; Kim Garcia, C.; Martinez, F. J.; Noth, I.; Flores, C.

2026-04-18 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.04.16.26350967 medRxiv
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Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a rare disease with a poor prognosis. Disease risk involves rare and common genetic variants. However, an inverse association have been described between them. Accordingly, IPF patients with a higher polygenic risk score (PRS) for IPF are less likely to carry rare deleterious variants and vice versa. Here, we evaluate weather PRS of IPF could serve as an additional criterion to patient prioritisation for rare variant discovery. Methods: We identified carriers based on the presence of rare qualifying variants (QVs) in genes linked to monogenic forms of pulmonary fibrosis in 888 IPF patients from the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (PFF-PR). Genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics from independent cohorts were used to construct a whole-genome PRS (WG-PRS) using a clumping and thresholding method (C+T) and a Bayesian method (SBayesRC). PRS were also derived from 19 known common sentinel IPF variants (Sentinel-PRS). Logistic regression models were used to evaluate associations between PRS and carrier status. Discriminatory performance was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC) analysis, and comparisons were made with DeLong test. Validation was performed in 472 IPF individuals from the UK PROFILE cohort. Results: IPF-PRS were strongly associated with the QVs carrier status: Odds Ratio [OR] 0.65 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.53-0.79) for WG-PRSC+T, OR 0.71 (95% CI 0.59-0.86) for WG-PRSSBayesRC, and OR 0.77 (95% CI 0.63-0.94) for Sentinel-PRS. Adding WG-PRS to the patient personal clinical history improved the prediction of QVs carriers: AUC=0.62 for the clinical model, AUC=0.68 for WG-PRSC+T (DeLong test, p=9.54x10-4) and AUC=0.66 for WG-PRSSBayesRC (DeLong test, p=0.02). Adding of IPF-PRS to clinical variables correctly reclassified 22.8% of carriers when using WG-PRSC+T, 20.8% when using Sentinel-PRS, and 16.7% for WG-PRSSBayesRC. WG-PRSSBayesRC and the Sentinel-PRS also demonstrated improved prediction of QVs carriers in telomere-related genes in PROFILE. Conclusions: Incorporating IPF-PRS into a model based on the patient clinical history improves the identification of QVs carriers. Although the overall discriminatory power was moderate, these findings raise de the possibility of using WG-PRS as useful criterion for rare variant discovery in patients with IPF and enhance decision-making.

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Differences in tuberculosis prevalence among people living with and without HIV in low-and-middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Swartwood, N.; Can, M. H.; Mortazavi, S. A.; Cui, H.; Singh, N.; Ryuk, D. K.; Horton, K.; MacPherson, P.; Menzies, N. A.

2026-04-22 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351343 medRxiv
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BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are leading causes of infectious disease deaths, with disproportionate impact in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite well-established biological relationships between these diseases, there is limited information on how TB prevalence differs between people living with and without HIV. MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of TB prevalence surveys conducted in LMICs and published during January 1st 1993-October 13th 2025 (PROSPERO CRD42024503853). We extracted bacteriologically-confirmed TB prevalence estimates stratified by participant HIV status. Surveys that offered HIV testing to all, sputum-collection-eligible, or TB-positive participants were included in the primary analysis. We applied Bayesian meta-regression to estimate pooled risk ratios (RR) of bacteriologically-confirmed TB prevalence among participants living with versus without HIV. Additionally, we estimated country-level and overall TB notification-to-prevalence (N:P) ratios by HIV status. FindingsOf 10,211 potentially relevant publications, 12 TB prevalence surveys--representing 264,530 participants within nine countries in Southern and Eastern Africa--were used in the primary analysis. Reported TB prevalence was higher among participants living with versus without HIV in 11/12 surveys, with an overall pooled RR of 3{middle dot}86 (95% credible interval: 2{middle dot}41-5{middle dot}53). N:P ratios were higher among participants living with HIV in all examined countries. The overall pooled N:P ratios were 1{middle dot}74 (0{middle dot}59-4{middle dot}56) and 0{middle dot}48 (0{middle dot}17-1{middle dot}20) among participants living with versus without HIV, respectively. InterpretationIn Southern and Eastern Africa, bacteriologically-confirmed TB prevalence is three- to six-times higher among people living with HIV. Comparison of prevalence and notification data suggest higher rates of TB diagnosis for people living with versus without HIV, but also indicates substantial delays in the detection of untreated TB cases for both populations. FundingWellcome Trust, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, NIH. Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSThere is limited systematic evidence on how the prevalence of TB disease differs between people living with HIV and without HIV. Multiple observational cohorts have described substantially elevated TB incidence among populations with HIV, but disease prevalence will also be affected by differences in mortality and treatment uptake rates. We searched PubMed from inception through January 21, 2026 using the search string ((HIV AND TB) OR HIV/TB) AND (prevalence AND (systematic review OR meta-analysis)) without any restrictions on language. We also reviewed investigators personal libraries. This search yielded 506 publications; however few of these included prevalence data. An analysis conducted in 2020 synthesized HIV status-stratified data from seven national TB prevalence surveys in Africa and found that HIV prevalence was lower among prevalent TB cases than among notified cases. This study did not include subnational surveys and did not distinguish between survey participants with self-reported or test-confirmed HIV status. Added value of this studyThis study synthesized TB prevalence data, stratified by participant HIV status, from national and subnational surveys conducted in LMICs and published between January 1st 1993 and October 13th, 2025. Collated data represented 681,402 survey participants across ten countries. All but one study were conducted in Southern and Eastern Africa. We limited our primary analysis to surveys that systematically tested participants for HIV and bacteriologically-confirmed TB. The prevalence of bacteriologically-confirmed TB was estimated to be three to six times higher than among people living with versus without HIV. Ratios of TB notifications to TB prevalence were higher for people living with HIV compared to people without HIV, suggesting higher rates of TB case detection (and likely shorter duration of disease) for people living with HIV and untreated TB than those without HIV. Implications of all available evidenceFew estimates of community-representative TB prevalence stratified by participant HIV status exist. These surveys have been concentrated in Southern and Eastern Africa, despite TB-HIV burden being distributed globally. Our findings highlight the elevated burden of TB among people living with HIV in these settings, as well as the limited data on the intersection of TB and HIV epidemiology in other world regions. Furthermore, our comparison of notification and prevalence data demonstrate substantial shortfalls in TB case detection, regardless of an individuals HIV status.

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Physiological subphenotypes of ARDS: Prognostic and predictive enrichment for PEEP strategy

Meza-Fuentes, G.; Delgado, I.; Barbe, M.; Sanchez-Barraza, I.; Filippini, D.; Smit, M. R.; Sinnige, J. S.; Kramer, L.; Smit, J.; Jonkman, A.; Meade, M.; Retamal, M. A.; Lopez, R.; Bos, L. D. J.

2026-03-30 intensive care and critical care medicine 10.64898/2026.03.27.26349397 medRxiv
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Background Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is characterised by substantial physiological heterogeneity, which contribute to a very variable clinical outcomes and therefore inconsistent responses to ventilatory strategies. We aimed to externally validate physiological ARDS subphenotypes previously identified using routine ventilatory and gas-exchange variables, assess their prognostic relevance across independent cohorts, and examine heterogeneity of treatment effect according to PEEP strategy. Methods Unsupervised Gaussian Mixture Modelling was used to identify physiological subphenotypes based on ventilatory mechanics and gas-exchange parameters. Labels were subsequently used to train and validate supervised classifiers using XGBoost. Prognostic relevance was assessed across three independent cohorts, including two randomised controlled trials (ALVEOLI and LOVS). Predictive enrichment for PEEP strategy was evaluated using individual patient data from ALVEOLI and LOVS (n = 1,532) using intention-to-treat analyses, applying both one-stage and two-stage fixed-effects IPD meta-analytic approaches to test for interaction between physiological subphenotype and PEEP strategy. Results Two distinct physiological subphenotypes, termed Efficient and Restrictive, were replicated across independent cohorts. Across each cohort, patients classified as Restrictive consistently exhibited higher all-cause 28-day mortality compared to Efficient patients. When pooled across studies, the Restrictive subphenotype was associated with a significantly increased risk of death (pooled odds ratio 1.75, 95% CI 1.36-2.24), with no evidence of between-study heterogeneity. Predictive analyses showed a statistically significant interaction between physiological subphenotype and PEEP strategy in the one-stage IPD model (p for interaction = 0.037), with concordant findings in the two-stage fixed-effects IPD meta-analysis (interaction OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.00-3.66; I2 = 0%). Higher PEEP was associated with increased mortality in Efficient patients and reduced mortality in Restrictive patients, indicating effect modification by physiological subphenotype. Interpretation Physiological ARDS subphenotypes derived from routinely collected bedside data provide robust and externally validated prognostic stratification across observational and randomised trial cohorts. The observed interaction with PEEP strategy suggests that underlying physiological profiles may influence treatment response, supporting the concept that physiology-based be a starting point for personalized medicine and therefore better ventilatory strategies in future clinical trials.