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Vaccination and Non-School NPIs Shaped Ontario's Pre-Omicron COVID-19 Hospital Burden

Tuffaha, M. Z.; Dick, D. W.; Li, J.; Heffernan, J. M.

2026-10-16 epidemiology
10.64898/2026.10.14.26365553 medRxiv
Show abstract

We develop an age- and immunity-structured COVID-19 model with setting-specific contacts, calibrated to Ontario incidence and hospital admissions before Omicron. We simulate counterfactual vaccination strategies and contact restrictions in schools, workplaces, and other community settings, evaluating projected severe-case demand against an illustrative healthcare-capacity benchmark. Vaccination combined with workplace and community contact restrictions keeps simulated demand within capacity. In contrast, relaxing restrictions in either setting produces large surges and repeated capacity threats, even when school restrictions remain. School-only changes produce smaller effects on severe disease. These findings highlight the value of vaccination and setting-specific contact restrictions that prioritize workplace and community settings for pathogens with adult-concentrated severe outcomes.

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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.