Delayed bleaching-induced coral mortality limits reef recovery after a marine heatwave

The increased frequency and intensity of coral bleaching events expose reefs to disturbance-recovery cycles that threaten their long-term dynamics. Understanding the impact of thermal stress requires evaluating coral mortality and recovery rates after disturbances. By integrating two long-term monitoring datasets, we examined coral mortality and recovery patterns at 13 sites in Mo'orea, French Polynesia, following the 2019 bleaching event, the most severe heat stress on record for the island. The maximum accumulated heat stress (AHSmax) varied from 5.76 to 6.26 {degrees} C weeks and enabled a direct analysis of heat-stress-related mortality. One year after bleaching, Pocillopora mortality increased with AHSmax, reducing mean coral cover from 35% to 17%. Regardless of AHSmax, Acropora mortality was high at all sites (median: 84%), reducing mean cover from 5% to 1% and indicating greater heat tolerance of Pocillopora than Acropora. Within four years after the bleaching event, no recovery occurred, and coral cover further declined relative to pre-bleaching levels. This decline was stronger for sites exposed to more intense heat stress. The impact of colony size was assessed by tracking 3090 individual Pocillopora colonies over six years and estimating size-dependent mortality and growth with a Bayesian mixed model. Immediately after the bleaching event, large Pocillopora corals exhibited a higher probability of complete and partial mortality than smaller colonies, highlighting size-specific consequences of bleaching. Even three years after the heat stress ended, large Pocillopora corals remained stressed, as evidenced by the continuously high probability of partial mortality. The lack of recovery observed here may be related to increased spatial competition with macroalgae. The disappearance of large fecund colonies and high mortality of coral recruits could have catastrophic consequences for the resilience of Mo'orea's reefs.