Toxicity by Consortium Revisited: Structural Neighbors and Cross-Family Reach

A compound's toxicity can be gauged from the toxicities of the compounds it resembles. We showed that in 2003 for rat oral LD50: the compounds in a reference set of 13,645 that most resemble the query form a consortium and vote on its toxicity. This work returns to that method twenty-three years later, on public data, because the reference set used in 2003 is no longer public. Rebuilt on 11,989 curated rat oral LD50 values, the method answers for 67.0% of the held-out compounds carrying an exact value, and 92.1% of those answers land within one log unit; in 2003 the figures were 94% within one log unit on 57.3% of compounds. We then ran it over 28 further endpoints, each recording whether a compound showed a particular toxicity, from cytochrome inhibition to mutagenicity to clinical toxicity: 149,224 measurements on 34,162 compounds. The method answers only when a compound has close enough neighbors, and on those it correctly identifies a median 72.9% of the compounds that showed the toxicity and 96.5% of those that did not. Separately we asked whether a reverse screen carries information about these endpoints beyond molecular size and lipophilicity. We search a compound against a published index of 27,910 ligands solved inside proteins and count the protein families those sites belong to. A compound whose matches reach no protein family inhibits CYP3A4 2.5% of the time; one whose matches span sixteen or more families inhibits 51.2% of the time. Added to heavy atom count, molecular weight and cLogP, the screen raises the mean area under the ROC curve from 0.72 to 0.76 across the 28 endpoints. The OpenADMET consortium has since measured CYP3A4 inhibition on 2,335 compounds, and the same pattern holds. Compounds that resemble known binders of sixteen or more protein families inhibit CYP3A4 24.6% of the time; compounds whose matches reach no protein family inhibit it 7.3% of the time. The more protein families a compound resembles binders of, the more likely it is to inhibit CYP3A4. This association is strong enough to act on before anything is made. Scoring a library on how far its compounds reach across protein families, together with their size and lipophilicity, and setting aside the riskiest fifth removes two thirds of the androgen receptor binders and about half of the CYP3A4 inhibitors. Scoring needs only a two-dimensional structure, with no docking and no conformer generation at query time. Interactive scoring, the data and the pool are at toxpred.ai. Keywords: toxicity prediction; structural similarity; nearest neighbors; reverse screening; target breadth; promiscuity; LD50; cytochrome P450; virtual library triage