Hairpin Architecture and Extended Sequence Context Shape APOBEC3 Mutagenesis in Monkeypox Virus at Different Genomic Scales

The 2022 global mpox outbreak was characterized by an unusual accumulation of more than fifty APOBEC-signature substitutions in MPXV genomes. A previous study suggested that these substitutions preferentially occur within and near hairpins or cruciforms - stem-loop structures formed by inverted repeats. Here, we show that this conclusion resulted from an inappropriate statistical analysis and, using two substantially larger datasets, demonstrate that APOBEC-signature mutations are specifically enriched at TC motifs located at the 3' ends of hairpin loops, but not in other regions of hairpins/cruciforms or in their vicinity. We further identified a preference for stem-loop structures with longer stems and shorter loops, consistent with patterns previously reported for the APOBEC mutagenesis in cancer genomes. Our analysis also revealed a positive association between APOBEC-signature mutation propensity and hairpin stability in single-stranded DNA. Nevertheless, stem-loop structures with long stems and short loops are relatively rare in the MPXV genome, limiting their contribution to the genome-wide distribution of APOBEC-signature mutations to a predominantly local effect. In contrast, extended nucleotide context downstream of the TC motif showed strong genome-wide predictive value, with a marked preference for guanine-rich trinucleotide immediately downstream. Analysis of the upstream nucleotide context was consistent with the mutational specificity of APOBEC3A. Together, these results identify distinct structural and sequence determinants of the APOBEC-associated mutagenesis in MPXV and show that local hairpin/cruciform architecture and extended nucleotide context contribute at different genomic scales.