Forest canopy height change due to demographic and allometric shifts

Forest canopy height is sensitive to shifts in demography (which affect tree size distributions and abundances of short-vs. tall-statured species) and allometry. Demographic and allometric effects on canopy height have not previously been studied across a large region. We analyzed more than two million individual tree measurements from about 60,000 remeasured inventory plots in non-plantation forests across 19 ecoregions of the conterminous United States to quantify changes in aboveground live tree biomass (AGB), canopy height, and its demographic and allometric components from ~2003-2025. We tested the hydraulic limitation hypothesis, which predicts decreasing tree height with increasing hydraulic stress. AGB was strongly correlated with canopy height across ecoregions, and AGB change was strongly correlated with canopy height change over time. Canopy height change was positive in nearly all eastern ecoregions but varied in sign across western ecoregions. Demographic shifts led to increased canopy height in most eastern ecoregions but decreased canopy height in most western ecoregions. In contrast, allometric shifts, averaged across species, caused either positive or no significant change in ecoregion-mean canopy height. Our results were consistent with several predictions of the hydraulic limitation hypothesis: (i) intraspecific allometric shifts were more positive for understory than for canopy trees, (ii) across ecoregions, canopy height was positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with vapor pressure deficit, and (iii) canopy height change over time was positively correlated with precipitation change. However, our results suggest modifications to the hydraulic limitation hypothesis, because allometric shifts tended to be positive, even in ecoregions with decreasing precipitation and increasing vapor pressure deficits. Such allometric shifts, which seem counter to the hydraulic limitation hypothesis, may be caused by CO2-driven increases in water-use efficiency. Whatever their cause, allometric shifts should be accounted for to avoid biased estimates of canopy height change and biomass change.