Tracking demographic changes in individual coral colonies through repeated photogrammetric surveys

Understanding the consequences of global change for our ecosystems requires reliable, accurate, and scalable tools for detecting ecological change. To this end, recent efforts have focused on scaling up the quantification of demographic processes from individual organisms (the fundamental ecological unit) to the larger spatial scales they inhabit to yield more precise and informative estimations of ecological change, especially in response to disturbance. Here, we describe a transferable workflow that combines robust underwater photogrammetry techniques with machine-learning-assisted image analysis to quantify demographic changes in coral colonies (growth, stasis, partial mortality, and complete mortality) through time on the reef landscape. We then demonstrate several analytical applications of this workflow that can be broadly applied to sessile and/or clonal organisms in other ecosystems. First, we tracked the fates of 3,162 coral colonies through a marine heatwave that caused substantial mortality. Second, our approach enabled detection of size- and taxon-dependent patterns in demographic changes from before to after the heatwave. Finally, for a subset (425) of these colonies, we further demonstrated how our method can be used to track fates across multiple years, including a year of change before and after the heatwave took place, revealing nuanced patterns of survival and mortality, as well as changes in size structure that occurred before and after the disturbance. Our workflow offers an important advance for increasing the accuracy of change detection on coral reefs and other ecosystems by linking demographic changes in individual organisms with spatially extensive image-based surveys through time.