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From Plant Detection to Satellite Mapping: A Multi-Scale AI Toolkit for Ragweed Surveillance under Climate Change

Leon Gutierrez, L. F.; Ramirez, C.; Henriquez, A.; Contreras, S.

2026-09-29 ecology
10.64898/2026.09.28.755009 bioRxiv
Show abstract

Climate change is reshaping weed population dynamics, creating non-stationary management challenges for which static decision rules are insufficient. This chapter presents and evaluates an open surveillance toolkit of artificial intelligence tools for recognizing and mapping Ambrosia artemisiifolia (common ragweed) at complementary spatial scales, tested across two phenological phases (seedling, September 2024; adult, December 2024) in a lentil paddock in central Chile. At the field scale, a YOLOv11 detection model coupled with Slicing Aided Hyper Inference achieved mAP50 of 0.886. Cross-domain experiments revealed that single-site models collapse catastrophically when deployed in new geographies (mAP50 dropping to 0.108), but multi-domain training recovers performance to 0.874. At the satellite scale, PRESTO foundation model embeddings correlated strongly with ground-truth weed density (r = 0.739); geographically weighted regression explained up to 91% of local density variance. All methods are released as the ragweed-ai-toolkit (https://github.com/agroia-lab/ragweed-ai-toolkit), a modular open-source Python package enabling adaptation to new species and geographies.

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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.