Climate of origin constrains phenological tracking of temperature in a California endemic oak (Quercus lobata)

Premise of the study. Phenotypic plasticity is advantageous for many plants that experience environmental fluctuations, but strong selection pressures can establish limits to plasticity. In deciduous trees, the ability to time leaf elongation in response to spring temperatures can extend the length of the growing season for a given year's climate. However, emergence timing may have undergone strong selection by factors like cold temperatures, limiting the capacity of locally adapted populations to adjust via plasticity to new conditions. Methods. Using a nine-year dataset of 659 families of Quercus lobata in two common gardens, we tested how climate of origin and annual temperatures at the gardens affected variation in phenology. We then examined whether leaf emergence timing was under selection in the gardens by testing its effects on growth. Finally, we tested whether among-year plasticity in leaf emergence timing conferred a growth benefit. Key results. Year-to-year environmental variation explained more phenological variation than genetic differences associated with climate of origin, yet trees from cooler climates were more constrained in their ability to track temperature than trees from warmer climates. We found evidence of weak stabilizing and directional selection on phenology, suggesting that strong selection in favor of earlier phenology is unlikely. Finally, we found no evidence that selection has favored increased plasticity in Q. lobata. Conclusions. Phenological plasticity remains a key driver of plants' response to changing temperatures, but it is constrained by natural selection. As temperatures rise, these processes may disproportionately limit the ability of trees adapted to cooler climates to shift their phenology to match spring temperatures.