Temporal dynamics of grooming reciprocity in crested macaques: do social bonds affect exchange?

Primates maintain cooperative relationships largely through grooming reciprocity, yet studies disagree on the timescales over which grooming is returned. Part of this disagreement stems from statistical issues: inconsistent definitions of a reciprocation window, combined with the exclusion of unreciprocated grooming, leave the debate unresolved. We still do not know if primates exchange grooming within the short windows predicted by biological market theory or over much longer timescales. Whilst survival analysis can identify reciprocation windows objectively by retaining unreciprocated grooming as censored data, previous studies have applied it inconsistently. This inconsistency leaves the true time frames over which primates reciprocate grooming somewhat blurred. Here, we use a statistical approach that addresses these problems to examine grooming reciprocity in crested macaques (Macaca nigra), a socially tolerant macaque species. We applied survival analysis to identify each group's short-term reciprocation window without imposing arbitrary cut offs, and Bayesian survival models to test whether social bond strength and eigenvector centrality predicted reciprocation latency. Short-term reciprocation occurred rarely (29% of events in one group and 5% in the other); most reciprocation occurred over longer timescales than previous research commonly assumes. Stronger bonds predicted faster reciprocation; this finding suggests that crested macaques express social investment in valued partners through how promptly they return grooming, meaning that the timing of exchange carries information about relationship value. Eigenvector centrality showed no credible effect, though our small sample size and dense groups prevent us from interpreting this outcome more robustly. Substantial variation between dyads remained unexplained, pointing to partnerspecific properties we have yet to identify. These findings caution against assuming that reciprocity operates over short windows. They show that social predictors, such as bond strength, remain essential to understanding when primates return grooming. This work provides a baseline for testing whether grooming is exchanged for other social commodities, and for comparing reciprocation timescales across macaque species that differ in social tolerance.