Intense TP53 pathway selection drives clonal evolution from bone marrow failure to leukemia in ERCC6L2 disease

ERCC6L2 disease (ED) is an inherited bone marrow failure (BMF) syndrome that progresses almost exclusively to erythroid, TP53-mutated myeloid malignancy, but the somatic evolution underlying the progression in patients is unknown. We characterized the genetic landscape of 29 ED patients with longitudinal sampling, integrating whole-genome and single-cell RNA sequencing, and compared the findings with Shwachman-Diamond syndrome (SDS), another TP53 mutation-prone disease, to define somatic evolution across disease stages. ED was defined by early, intense, and recurrent selection of TP53-mutant clones: TP53 mutations were more frequent, more often multiple, and showed steeper age-related expansion than in SDS; all TP53-negative ED patients were children. The burden of multiple TP53 mutations exceeded that of sporadic TP53-mutated myeloid neoplasia and was evident before malignancy. Missense mutations dominated the BMF phase, whereas non-missense mutations were seen in patients with malignancy, consistent with biallelic second hits, marking a stage-dependent shift in p53 inactivation. Beyond TP53, the landscape was strikingly restricted, with PPM1D as the only recurrent driver gene. Notably, despite the DNA-repair function of ERCC6L2, no ED-specific mutational signature emerged; but instead reflected age-associated processes. Malignant progression was accompanied by a complex karyotype, recurrent chromosome 5, 7, and 12p losses enriched in erythroid progenitors, and kataegis, consistent with branched, erythroid-predominant clonal evolution. Our findings establish ED as a paradigm of preleukemic dependency on p53-pathway attenuation. As progression is driven predominantly by p53 and captured longitudinally from the earliest clones, ED offers a model of how TP53-mutated leukemia arises and evolves, with relevance beyond a rare syndrome.