Back

Air pollution drives concentrated clinical severity of respiratory illness in early childhood

Kim, H.; Suh, J.; Shin, J.; Yang, H.-S.

2026-09-08 health economics
10.64898/2026.09.03.26362213 medRxiv
Show abstract

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) increases paediatric respiratory morbidity, but its impact on the intensity and economic burden of care in early childhood remains unclear. Here we link nationwide health records for 3,210,381 South Korean children (99,261,945 child-month observations, 2015-2019) and exploit quasi-random variation in PM2.5 induced by thermal inversions to estimate its causal effects on respiratory care and expenditure. A 1-standard-deviation increase in monthly PM2.5 (7.23 micrograms per cubic metre) raises respiratory visits broadly, peaking at age 1 (0.29 additional visits per child-month) and remaining significant through age 6. In contrast, expenditures rise disproportionately among children under 3, increasing by 46.7%, 43.0%, and 35.4% at ages 0, 1, and 2 and becoming indistinguishable from zero beyond age 4. This shift towards higher-intensity emergency care translates into a 32.2% increase in annual respiratory spending among children under 5. Air pollution thus imposes a dual burden, amplifying both the frequency and severity of illness among the youngest infants.

Matching journals

The top 9 journals account for 50% of the predicted probability mass.

50% of probability mass above

"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.