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An LLM enabled real-time estimation of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness from social media data

Pavia, M. J.; Amaro, I. F.; Xu, D.; Gonzalez-Hernandez, G.; Scotch, M.

2026-08-31 public and global health
10.64898/2026.08.28.26361670 medRxiv
Show abstract

Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is estimated from a limited number of clinics using a test-negative design. These standard estimates face geographic, temporal, and operational constraints. Using Twitter/X data, we applied few-shot chain-of-thought prompting to identify self-reported vaccination status and influenza test results, then implemented a test-negative-like design to estimate VE. Our estimates fell within the range of interim reports and could complement current systems, improving feasibility, timeliness, and scalability.

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