CHANGE IN STROKE SURVIVAL in Sweden 2000 -- 2022 -- the importance of sex, attained education and age

Background The time trend in long-term survival after a stroke is to some extent unknow due to (relatively) short follow up periods in available data. The objective of this study is to identify and quantify differences in long-term stroke survival in Sweden between men and women and patients with different attained educational levels, comparing two time-periods, 2000-2009 and 2010-2022. Methods This study employs total population Swedish register data pertaining to hospital-based care and mortality due to stroke for the period 2000-2022 in order to estimate survival (all-cause mortality) after ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, respectively, and pertaining to attained educational level. Kaplan-Meier survival functions are estimated stratifying for time-period, sex and educational level. Cox regressions are employed to quantify mortality hazard ratios between the strata. Age is taken into account in complementary analyses (supplement). Results Taking only time-period (2000-2009 vs 2010-2022) into account resulted in significantly higher survival in the second period for ischaemic stroke patients (HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.83-0.84), while no significant difference could be detected for haemorrhagic stroke. Stratifying for sex showed that men gained more than women in terms of reduced mortality hazard rate between the periods. Further stratifying by educational level and estimating survival separately for men and women showed that, for both men and women, patients with the lowest education were relatively worse off (compared to patients with higher education) in the second period. Further analyses, taking age into account, reversed the relative hazard ratio between men and women, but corroborated the result that low education is associated with poorer outcome than high education. Conclusions The results suggest that there are considerable differences in expected long-term survival after stroke between the sexes, but that this may be due to differences in age between the sexes at the time of stroke. Moreover, lower educational level is significantly associated with lower long-time survival.