A Multivariable Plasma Extracellular Vesicle Surface Profile Associated with Post-COVID-19 Syndrome

Post-COVID-19 syndrome (PCS) is characterized by fatigue, neurological impairment and systemic symptoms. This heterogeneity of symptoms hinders biomarker development. Here, we profiled extracellular-vesicle (EV) surface markers in plasma and CSF from 61 participants with PCS (COVIDpost), 80 recovered controls (COVIDreco), and 10 participants with non-SARS-CoV-2 post-viral syndromes. EVs were analysed by bead-based multiplex flow cytometry using tetraspanin-directed (TSPN) and phosphatidylserine-directed lactadherin (PS) detection. Amongst 37 targets covering tetraspanins and vasculature-, immunity- and stemness-associated markers, none met a 1% false-discovery-rate threshold. However, L1-regularized logistic regression under fully nested 5x5 cross-validation identified a distributed plasma EV profile, with mean out-of-fold areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) of 0.788 (95% CI 0.715 - 0.852) for TSPN and 0.716 (95% CI 0.636 - 0.792) for PS detection. Across the pooled COVIDpost and COVIDreco population, EV classification scores covaried with clinical group differences, but did not track clinical severity within either cohort. These PCS-EV classification scores decreased at one-year follow-up in COVIDpost participants. Our findings identify an internally cross-validated multivariable EV surface profile associated with COVIDpost versus COVIDreco status and support independent validation and exploration of EV-based biomarkers in post-viral fatigue syndromes.