A simulation-based method for genotype-environment association analysis

Genotype-environment association (GEA) analyses are widely used to identify loci underlying local adaptation by examining correlations between allele frequencies and environmental variables across a species' range. A major challenge for this approach is distinguishing true adaptive signals from spurious associations arising from population structure. Several methods have been developed to account for population structure, but these methods can suffer from reduced statistical power or increased false positives under some conditions. To address this, we introduce a new GEA method, termed SimGEA. In essence, SimGEA infers a neutral evolutionary model that reproduces the population structure observed in empirical data and uses this model to simulate neutral alleles. By applying the same GEA statistic to both the empirical and simulated data, SimGEA evaluates the significance of observed associations against neutral expectations that account for population structure. We compared the performance of SimGEA with that of existing GEA methods, including LFMM2 and BayPass, using simulations of local adaptation in two-dimensional space. We found that SimGEA consistently controlled the false discovery rate without substantially sacrificing statistical power across the scenarios examined. These results suggest that calibrating statistics using neutral simulations provides a robust and flexible approach for accounting for population structure in GEA analyses.