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Evolution of pathogen dormancy in fluctuating environments

Khong, V. H.; Carmona, P.; Gandon, S.

2026-08-22 evolutionary biology
10.64898/2026.08.22.746398 bioRxiv
Show abstract

Dormancy is a widespread life-history strategy that enables organisms to persist through periods of adverse environmental conditions. Despite its prevalence, the evolutionary forces shaping dormancy and the timing of reactivation remain poorly understood, particularly in pathogens facing predictable environmental fluctuations. Here, we investigate how seasonal variation can drive the joint evolution of pathogen dormancy and reactivation, and whether these traits are favoured to evolve as fixed or plastic strategies. Using a theoretical model of vector-borne disease transmission, we show when seasonality can promote plasticity in dormancy and reactivation. The optimal timing of transitions between active and dormant states depends critically on the environmental cues available to pathogens and on their reliability for predicting future transmission opportunities. Although motivated by the biology of relapsing malaria parasites, our results provide a general framework for understanding the evolution of dormancy as an adaptive response to periodic environmental fluctuations across diverse pathogen systems.

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"Similar papers" are the closest papers from that journal in the model's embedding space. They show what the match is built on, but the ranking comes mostly from a classifier over the whole training set, not from these examples alone.