Longitudinal Characterization of Nociplastic Pain in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: A Nationwide Registry Study

Nociplastic pain features are common in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), yet its longitudinal trajectory remain poorly characterized. SLE patients in the FORWARD Databank were classified as Minimal, Type 1, Type 2, or Mixed using the Polysymptomatic Distress Scale (PSD[&ge;]8) and the Systemic Lupus Activity Questionnaire (SLAQ) inflammatory domain score ([&ge;]2). Cross-sectional analyses (N=372) compared clinical outcomes and medication use. Longitudinal analyses (n=301; median 3.7 years) characterized phenotype transitions using continuous-time Markov models and identified latent trajectories using joint group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM). At baseline, 29% were Minimal, 12% Type 1, 13% Type 2, and 47% Mixed. Functional impairment increased stepwise: from Minimal to Mixed, SF-36 physical component scores decreased from 49.7 to 30.0 and PROMIS Pain Interference scores increased from 46.2 to 63.6 (both p<0.001). Organ damage, depression, and opioid use were highest in Mixed. Longitudinally, Minimal and Mixed were persistent (mean duration 2.0 and 1.8 years; one-year retention 70%), while Type 1 and Type 2 were transient (~0.5 years; retention 18% and 28%). Exit trajectories were asymmetric: Type 1 moved preferentially to Minimal (49% of exits), whereas Type 2 moved to Mixed (65%; p<0.001). Population-average PSD was nearly flat (+0.014 SD/year, p=0.07); while opioid use declined to near zero in Minimal and Type 1 but remained high in Type 2 and Mixed. Joint GBTM identified four severity classes along a Minimal-to-Mixed diagonal. Nociplastic phenotypes in SLE are persistent, severity-stratified, with substantial functional, psychological, organ-damage, and opioid burdens. Transient Type 1 and Type 2 states have divergent longitudinal transitions.