Dysregulation of the p16-CDK6 axis characterizes HPV-unrelated p16-positive oropharyngeal carcinoma

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-related and HPV-unrelated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPCs) are distinct entities with different clinical outcomes. While p16 immunohistochemistry (IHC) is widely used as a surrogate marker for HPV-driven OPC, a subset of HPV-unrelated OPCs also overexpress p16, and the biological basis of this discordance remains unclear. Here, we performed integrated clinicopathological, transcriptomic, genomic, and functional analyses of OPCs and demonstrated that dysregulation of the p16-CDK6 axis characterizes HPV-unrelated p16-positive OPCs. Although these tumors closely resembled HPV-unrelated p16-negative OPCs in their clinicopathological and transcriptomic characteristics, they exhibited a more favorable prognosis. CDK6 was recurrently upregulated in HPV-unrelated OPC regardless of p16 status and was already detectable in high-grade dysplastic leukoplakia, suggesting that CDK6 activation is an early event in HPV-unrelated tumorigenesis. In experimental models, CDK6 overexpression induced compensatory p16 upregulation, creating selective pressure for subsequent CDKN2A inactivation. Consistent with this model, homozygous CDKN2A loss predominated in p16-negative tumors. We further identified CDKN2A frameshift mutations generating p14ARF-p16 chimeric proteins that retain p16 immunoreactivity despite functional loss of wild-type p16, revealing a previously unrecognized diagnostic pitfall of p16 IHC. These findings provide a biological framework for p16 overexpression in HPV-unrelated OPC and suggest that assessment of the p16-CDK6 axis may refine molecular classification and risk stratification beyond p16 IHC alone.