Where and why alongshore variation in larval transport enables the establishment of introduced species

After introduction, many non-native marine species are dispersed planktonically. Secondary spread within the non-native range has been shown to prevent the establishment of the introduced species if the advection of larvae prevents sufficient return of larvae to maintain the population in the face of competition with native species. However, those studies have largely neglected the effects of spatial variation in alongshore larval transport. We examine the introduction of a novel species with planktonic dispersal into a more realistic coastal environment which includes spatial variation in larval transport estimated from the Mercator Ocean 1/12th degree global circulation model. The introduction may either be from a distant habitat, or through range expansion. We find that there are locations in the global coastal ocean where introduced species are more likely to persist because of spatial variation of coastal currents. These include regions where alongshore larval transport diverges, such as estuaries. The location where a non-native species is introduced may not be where it flourishes - it cannot be assumed that the region where invading species are first noticed to be abundant is the region where it was introduced. We extend closed-population theory to open coastal systems to estimate persistence as a function of local circulation, habitat extent, and the competitive advantage of the introduced species. Software is provided which allows the estimations of regions where introduced species are more likely to persist and flourish as a function of larval depth behavior, planktonic duration and release timing.