A Bayesian hierarchical analysis of trends and risk to identify regional conservation priorities of Chinstrap Penguins

Chinstrap penguins (Pygoscelis antarcticus) in the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Arc regions (CCAMLR subareas 48.1 and 48.2) have experienced substantial declines, yet uncertainty remains about regional variation and conservation priorities. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to 1,072 nest counts from 194 colonies (1970 to 2024) to quantify population trends, estimate probabilities of exceeding IUCN Red List thresholds, and assess compensation potential across four locations. The regional population declined by 41.9% over three generations, with 91.4% probability of exceeding the 30% Vulnerable threshold but only 9.2% probability of exceeding the 50% Endangered threshold. Declines were spatially heterogeneous: South Shetland Islands (40.2% of regional population) declined by 74.7% with near-certainty of exceeding both thresholds, while South Orkney Islands showed stability with high uncertainty (median -5%, 95% CI: -31.5% to +36.8%). The probability of increasing colonies compensating for regional losses was only 7%. These results support a three-zone conservation strategy for CCAMLR's proposed Marine Protected Area: urgent protection for the South Shetland Islands, enhanced monitoring for South Orkney and Elephant Islands, and adaptive management for the Antarctic Peninsula. Our uncertainty-quantified framework provides evidence-based guidance for balancing krill fishery access with predator protection in a rapidly changing Southern Ocean.