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Bottleneck species determine resilience in successional communities

Rabi, N.

2026-08-05 ecology
10.64898/2026.07.31.742051 bioRxiv
Show abstract

Successional communities often recover slowly because progression stalls at persistent stages that resist replacement. Here, we show that resilience in such systems is frequently governed by a single bottleneck stage with the lowest effective exit rate. Using empirical transition ma-trices from intertidal and plant communities, we demonstrate that altering the bottleneck has a much larger effect on resilience than modifying any other stage. We then show that this bottle-neck principle emerges naturally from both Markov and continuous-time models of succession. Specifically that the slowest return to equilibrium is controlled primarily by the stage with the smallest effective exit rate, which also dominates the mean first-passage time to late succession. These results provide a simple biological interpretation of resilience in successional communities and suggest that management efforts are most effective when they target the stage that limits the pace of succession.

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