Modelling the effectiveness of attractive targeted sugar baits in reducing clinical malaria

Attractive targeted sugar baits (ATSBs) are a novel vector intervention targeting the sugar feeding behaviour of mosquitos by providing toxic sugar meals. ATSBs have shown strong efficacy in terms of mosquito population reduction in entomological trials but their epidemiological impact remains incompletely understood. This modelling study explores the impact of ATSBs on entomological and epidemiological outcomes over a wide range of transmission settings. We quantify the required killing probabilities to achieve target incidence reductions and demonstrate the sensitivity of ATSB efficacy to mosquito characteristics such as sugar feeding frequency and sac rate. Furthermore, we show that ATSBs can maintain reduced incidence levels previously achieved by long-term insecticide-treated net campaigns. Despite mixed results from clinical trials, these results highlight the high potential of ATSBs as a complementary vector control strategy, while underscoring the critical importance of entomological parameters in predicting public health impact. Realizing this potential will require accurate characterization of mosquito behavior and optimized deployment strategies to ensure sufficient population-level killing probabilities of mosquitoes.