Rural-Urban Disparities in Near-Completed Fertility among Women Aged 40-49 in Nigeria: Evidence from the 2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey

Rural-urban fertility differences may reflect unequal distributions of education, household resources, union timing, and regional characteristics rather than an independent effect of residence. This study examined whether the rural-urban gap in near-completed fertility among Nigerian women aged 40-49 persisted after accounting for these compositional factors. Data were drawn from 7,370 women in the 2024 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Children ever born were analyzed using weighted descriptive statistics, residence-specific comparisons, and four survey-weighted Poisson generalized linear models with a log link and cluster-robust standard errors. The weighted mean number of children ever born was 5.53, ranging from 4.68 among urban women to 6.39 among rural women. In the age-adjusted model, rural women had 37% more children than urban women (IRR = 1.37, p < .001), but residence was no longer statistically significant after adjustment for education and household wealth. In the fully adjusted model, women aged 45-49 had more children than those aged 40-44 (IRR = 1.09, p < .001). Secondary and higher education were associated with lower fertility (IRR = 0.92 and 0.82, respectively; p < .001), as was residence in the richest households (IRR = 0.84, p < .001). First cohabitation at ages 20-24 and 25 or older was also associated with lower fertility (IRR = 0.82 and 0.64; p < .001). The rural-urban fertility gap largely reflected socioeconomic, marital-timing, and regional inequalities.