Circulating tumor DNA concentration at diagnosis is a modifiable prognostic factor for distant metastatic recurrence in patients with high-risk breast cancer receiving neoadjuvant therapy

Background: Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is an emerging biomarker of treatment response and recurrence risk, while residual cancer burden (RCB) after neoadjuvant treatment (NAT) is a well-established risk factor for distant recurrence. Here, we examined the association between high ctDNA concentration at diagnosis and risk of distant recurrence after neoadjuvant treatment (NAT), in the context of RCB. Methods: The study included 712 patients with high-risk breast cancer in the neoadjuvant I-SPY2 trial. Tumor-informed ctDNA test results at diagnosis were used to stratify patients into ctDNA-negative and ctDNA-positive groups. For this analysis, the ctDNA-positive group was divided into tertiles (low, intermediate, high) based on ctDNA concentration reported as mean tumor molecules per mL [MTM/mL] of plasma. Correlations between MTM/mL at diagnosis and ctDNA dynamics during NAT, residual cancer burden (RCB), and distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) were examined across all subtypes. Results: In all subtypes, high ctDNA concentration at diagnosis was associated with worse DRFS, whereas low ctDNA concentration or ctDNA-negative status was associated with improved DRFS, even with high tumor burden after NAT (RCB-II/RCB-III). We also found that patients with high ctDNA concentration, regardless of subtype, were less likely to experience early ctDNA clearance; however, those who did had a significantly higher likelihood of achieving a favorable response (RCB-0/RCB-I) than those with late or no ctDNA clearance. Furthermore, across all subtypes, patients with early ctDNA clearance, including those with substantial residual cancer (RCB-II/RCB-III) after NAT, had improved DRFS, irrespective of the ctDNA concentration at diagnosis. Conclusions: Across all subtypes, pathologic response and ctDNA clearance reduce the risk of distant recurrence associated with high ctDNA concentration at diagnosis. ctDNA concentration at diagnosis and ctDNA clearance dynamics during NAT may facilitate the prediction of treatment response and further stratify the risk of metastatic recurrence in non-responders.