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Analytical perturbation reveals hidden instability of biological phenotypes

Piorkowska, N. J.; Ostromecki, A.; Franik, G.; Bizon, A.

2026-07-16 endocrinology
10.64898/2026.07.13.26357916 medRxiv
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Background Unsupervised machine learning has become a cornerstone of computational phenotyping across clinical medicine, genomics, imaging, and multi-omics research. However, phenotype discovery relies on a sequence of analytical decisions - including missing-data handling, preprocessing, dimensionality reduction, clustering methodology, and stochastic initialization - that are rarely evaluated collectively. Although clustering stability has been extensively investigated, the robustness of complete analytical workflows remains largely unexplored. Results We developed an Analytical Perturbation Framework that systematically quantifies the robustness of phenotype discovery by perturbing complete unsupervised learning workflows rather than individual clustering algorithms. Using a real-world cohort of 1,286 women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), we generated 116 valid analytical pipelines comprising alternative preprocessing strategies, missing-data handling methods, dimensionality reduction approaches, clustering algorithms, and random initializations. Agreement between independently generated phenotype solutions was consistently low (median Adjusted Rand Index = 0.079), indicating substantial sensitivity of phenotype discovery to routine analytical decisions. Variance decomposition identified preprocessing as the largest contributor to phenotype instability (22.8%), followed by clustering methodology (14.6%), whereas stochastic initialization explained only 3.1% of the observed variability. At the patient level, most individuals exhibited reproducible phenotype assignments (median Patient Robustness Score = 0.719), although a substantial subgroup showed markedly lower assignment stability. Feature perturbation analyses identified follicle-stimulating hormone, anti-thyroglobulin antibodies, anti-thyroid peroxidase antibodies, total testosterone, luteinizing hormone, and androstenedione as the strongest contributors to computational robustness, rather than biological importance. Finally, phenotype solutions demonstrating greater computational robustness also exhibited greater biological coherence during independent validation.

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