Epilepsy Surgery vs Medical Management for Pediatric Drug-Resistant Focal Epilepsy

Abstract Importance: Drug-resistant focal epilepsy affects approximately 30% of children with epilepsy and carries excess mortality, impaired neurodevelopment, and substantial costs. Epilepsy surgery is underutilized despite proven superiority over medical management. MRI-guided laser interstitial thermal therapy (MRgLITT) is a minimally invasive alternative to open resection, but comparative evidence to guide procedure selection is limited. Objective: To estimate lifetime outcomes and costs of epilepsy surgery versus medical management for pediatric drug-resistant focal epilepsy, and to provide etiology-informed guidance for choosing between open resection and MRgLITT. Design: Markov decision analytic model with a lifetime horizon, parameterized from published systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and cohort studies. Setting: United States, healthcare payer perspective. Participants: Hypothetical cohort of 10-year-old children with drug-resistant focal epilepsy and a seizure focus <3 cm3. Interventions: Best medical management, open resective surgery, or MRgLITT. Main Outcomes and Measures: Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime direct medical costs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and lifetime survival. Seizure outcomes were classified as seizure freedom or disabling seizures. Cost-effectiveness was assessed at $100,000/QALY. Results: Both surgical strategies were associated with a 4.6-year survival advantage, 3.6 additional lifetime QALYs, and lower costs than medical management. MRgLITT yielded 22.64 QALYs at $120,943; open resection yielded 22.62 QALYs at $121,650; medical management yielded 19.00 QALYs at $127,471. The difference between MRgLITT and open resection was 0.015 QALYs, reflecting near-equivalent effectiveness; in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, MRgLITT was optimal in 50.3% of iterations and open resection in 38.3%, with neither showing clear superiority. Etiology-specific analyses favored MRgLITT for focal cortical dysplasia and mesial temporal sclerosis, and open resection for tumor-related and cavernoma-related epilepsy. Conclusions and Relevance: Both open resection and MRgLITT were associated with substantially better lifetime outcomes and lower costs than medical management, supporting early surgical referral. Overall effectiveness between surgical approaches was clinically similar, with neither demonstrating clear superiority; the model suggests epilepsy etiology, rather than expected effectiveness alone, should guide procedure selection between MRgLITT and open resection.