Metabarcoding replicate detection frequency tracks ddPCR copy number for cod and herring eDNA in ancient marine sediments

1. Detecting environmental DNA (eDNA) from rare or low-abundance aquatic species remains a major challenge, particularly when it is highly degraded, present at low concentrations, and dominated by DNA from non-target taxa. These challenges are further amplified in sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) studies, where thousands of years can degrade eDNA further, making the detection and quantitative interpretation of weak biological signals difficult. 2. Metabarcoding is commonly used to produce high-throughput community-level data from eDNA but is inherently compositional and influenced by amplification biases. Nonetheless, metabarcoding read abundance or PCR replicate detection frequency are increasingly used as proxies for relative DNA concentration, but their quantitative interpretation has rarely been evaluated against independent measures of absolute DNA abundance. 3. We used droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) to quantify mitochondrial DNA from Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in 136 ancient eDNA extracts from Icelandic marine sediment cores spanning the last three millennia. We compared ddPCR copy number estimates with metabarcoding (18S) derived relative abundance and detection frequency, and evaluated whether temporal DNA trends corresponded with proxy reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) variability. 4. We found that ddPCR-measured fish sedaDNA abundance was positively correlated with the proportion of metabarcoding PCR replicates for both Atlantic cod and Atlantic herring. Moreover, temporal trends in Atlantic herring DNA abundance were consistent with proxy reconstructed SST variability, supporting the ecological relevance of the molecular signal. 5. Overall, our results show that ddPCR-derived DNA concentrations and metabarcoding PCR replicate detection frequency capture consistent patterns in low-abundance fish sedaDNA from marine sediments. The observed agreement between approaches supports the use of PCR replicate detection frequency as a semi-quantitative proxy for low-abundance sedaDNA.