High-frequency oscillations and interictal epileptiform discharges predict infantile spasms

Early acquired brain injury is a major risk factor for infantile epileptic spasms syndrome (IESS), which may impair cognitive development, especially if diagnosis and treatment are delayed. However, individual-level prediction of which infants will develop IESS is currently not possible. We assessed whether high-frequency oscillations (HFOs) in scalp EEG or recurrent interictal epileptiform discharges (IED) during the first months of life could predict forthcoming IESS. Our population-based cohort included 36 infants with cortical injury due to infarction, haemorrhage, infection or trauma involving a large cortical area ([&ge;] anterior/posterior cerebral artery territory or [&ge;] half of the middle cerebral artery territory), or hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy with cortical and deep grey matter involvement. The infants underwent repeated EEGs during the first year of life until 12 months of age or until IESS diagnosis. HFOs during sleep were scored both visually and automatically, whereas IEDs were assessed visually only. We tested whether HFO rate increased during the first year of life using a mixed-effects model with within- and between-subject random effects. Using only EEGs recorded prior to IESS diagnosis, we evaluated whether HFO rate or recurrent IEDs could predict IESS development by training a ridge-regularized logistic regression model with exhaustive leave-2-subjects-out cross-validation. Eleven infants (31%) developed IESS. HFO rate increased with age in both groups but more steeply in the IESS group [within person slope {beta} = 2.43 (IESS) vs. 0.06 (no-IESS) units/month, P < 0.001]. The logistic regression model showed that both HFO rate [AUC 0.801 (95% CI 0.668, 0.936)] and recurrent IEDs [AUC 0.826 (95% CI 0.720, 0.932)] were able to predict forthcoming IESS. However, in a multivariable model, only recurrent IEDs remained independently associated with IESS, and HFO rate did not add predictive value. The marked increase in HFO rate toward IESS diagnosis supports their role as a biomarker of epileptogenesis. During the first months of life, HFOs and recurrent IEDs performed equally well in predicting subsequent IESS. However, IEDs are easier to apply to clinical practice.