Megaherbivore mortality risk from temperature extremes is buffered by vegetation productivity but amplified by rainfall

Demographic risks from climate change remain poorly understood for megaherbivore species which face unique challenges because their large food requirements impose strong bottom-up limitation while their small surface-area-to-volume ratio limits heat dissipation. Here, we test how megaherbivore mortality is shaped by the concurrent effects of temperature and rainfall along with vegetation productivity, a potentially critical modifier of climate effects. By analysing four decades of monthly mortality records from 4,457 semi-captive Asian elephants across Myanmar, we identify multiple environmental pathways regulating megaherbivore mortality. Elephant mortality increased at extreme hot and cold temperatures in regions with low annual vegetation productivity, whereas high vegetation productivity buffered against such U-shaped effects of temperature. Furthermore, high rainfall amplified the negative impacts of extreme heat, underlining risks arising from the joint effects of heat and humidity. Seasonal declines in vegetation productivity did not explain the elevated mortality at temperature extremes. Together, our findings show that megaherbivores face elevated risks from global warming, but such risks strongly depend on vegetation productivity and humidity, highlighting multiple pathways through which climate change can shape the dynamics of megaherbivore populations.