A Novel Integrated Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis in Pediatric Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Background: Pediatric dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a leading cause of heart failure and transplantation, with variable prognosis and high early mortality. This study developed and validated a nomogram predicting short-term mortality risk to guide clinical decisions. Methods: The data were sourced from the Pediatric Cardiomyopathy Database at Shandong Provincial Hospital. Cox regression analysis was conducted to determine outcome-associated factors, and a nomogram was developed to estimate 1, 3, and 5year mortality risks for children with DCM. Model effectiveness was assessed through the concordance index (C-index) and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Additionally, calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) were employed to evaluate the model's predictive accuracy and clinical relevance. Results: A cohort of 106 children diagnosed with primary DCM and who underwent genetic analysis was studied, with a median diagnostic age of 10 months (ranging from 5 to 84 months), comprising 50 girls (47.2%). The rate of detecting genetic mutations was 28.3%, uncovering 14 gene variants linked to DCM, with TTN mutations being the most common. Both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses indicated that both sex and NT-proBNP levels had a significant impact on survival rates among pediatric DCM patients.The model exhibited strong discriminative performance, calibration, and clinical net benefit, as assessed by the C-index, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Conclusions: The prediction model created in this research shows strong accuracy in forecasting survival rates at 1, 3, and 5 years for children with DCM, highlighting its significant relevance in clinical settings.