Subtype Dynamics Reveal Horizon-Dependent Structure in Influenza Predictability

Accurate forecasting of seasonal influenza is critical for public health preparedness, and data-driven models are central to this effort. However, most approaches rely on aggregate indicators of influenza-like-illness (ILI), which can obscure heterogeneity and limit predictability at longer horizons. While subtype dynamics are well established, their role in data-driven forecasting remains incompletely understood. Here, we integrate subtype-resolved surveillance data into diverse data-driven frameworks using over a decade of U.S. surveillance records to evaluate and decompose predictive signal in influenza forecasting. Across pre- and post-COVID-19 periods, subtype-informed models consistently improve over baseline models trained on aggregate ILI alone, with the largest gains at longer horizons. Decomposition reveals a horizon-dependent reorganization of predictability: autoregressive persistence in recent aggregate incidence dominates at short horizons but declines with lead time, while predictive signal shifts toward subtype-derived structure. Within this structure, interaction-related features among co-circulating subtypes grow systematically with forecast horizon, indicating that longer-term predictability is driven increasingly by interaction structure rather than marginal subtype composition alone. Together, our results show that subtype information provides non-redundant predictive signal and extends the effective forecasting window of data-driven models. More broadly, our findings suggest that aggregation of heterogeneous subtype processes can obscure latent predictability, supporting subtype-resolved surveillance.