Metabolomic Signatures of Brain Atrophy and Ibudilast Response in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

Background: Progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) is characterized by ongoing neurodegeneration and limited therapeutic options. Circulating metabolites provide insight into disease biology, yet biomarkers that predict disability progression and reflect treatment response are lacking. We aimed to identify metabolomic signatures associated with longitudinal MRI measures of brain atrophy and to evaluate whether ibudilast treatment was associated with metabolite trajectories over time. Methods: We repeatedly profiled 1,726 plasma metabolites using untargeted UPLC-MS/MS in 244 participants from the 96-week SPRINT-MS randomized trial of oral ibudilast, up to 100 mg daily, versus placebo. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis was used to derive groups of related metabolites. Associations between baseline metabolite groups and longitudinal MRI outcomes were evaluated using linear mixed-effects models adjusted for demographic, clinical, and treatment covariates. The primary outcome was the rate of whole-brain atrophy measured by brain parenchymal fraction (BPF), defined as the proportion of intracranial volume occupied by brain tissue. Secondary outcomes included white matter fraction (WMF), gray matter fraction (GMF), and cortical thickness (CTH). Metabolite groups nominally associated with MRI outcomes, defined as p < 0.05, were followed by individual metabolite analyses to identify potential drivers. Significant metabolites were tested for replication in a comparable real-world observational HEAL-MS cohort with longitudinal MRI data. Lastly, we tested whether ibudilast treatment was associated with metabolite trajectories and performed metabolite set enrichment analysis. Findings: Higher baseline levels of glycerophospholipids were associated with slower decline in both BPF and WMF, and sphingomyelins were similarly associated with slower BPF decline. For example, higher 1-palmityl-2-stearoyl-GPC (O-16:0/18:0) levels were associated with slower BPF decline in SPRINT-MS (beta = 0.016 [95% CI: 0.008, 0.024]; p = 4.35 x 10^-5) and replicated in HEAL-MS (beta = 0.108 [95% CI: 0.006, 0.211]; p = 3.90 x 10^-2). Metabolites associated with GMF preservation were enriched in androgenic steroids and steroid sulfates, with consistent positive associations observed in the replication cohort, whereas metabolites inversely associated with CTH were predominantly xenobiotic-related. Ibudilast treatment was associated with increased sphingomyelin species, such as palmitoyl sphingomyelin (d18:1/16:0; beta = 0.185 [95% CI: 0.085, 0.286]; FDR = 1.79 x 10^-2), and decreased levels of amino acid-related metabolites, such as anthranilate (beta = -0.270 [95% CI: -0.403, -0.137]; FDR = 3.87 x 10^-2). Pathway-based analyses corroborated these findings, highlighting glycerophospholipid and sphingolipid metabolism as key pathways implicated in brain atrophy in MS. Interpretation: Distinct lipid subsets were associated with slower brain atrophy in people with MS, and ibudilast treatment was associated with metabolite alterations in potentially neuroprotective directions. Metabolomics may provide prognostic and pharmacodynamic biomarkers for progressive MS.