Trends in hospitalization rates for ocular diseases in Brazil

This study mapped the age- and region-specific risks of eye diseases in the Brazilian population, evaluating temporal trends and geographical inequalities in access to healthcare. Secondary data from DATASUS, covering the 27 Brazilian federative units from 2010 to 2024, were used, employing hierarchical negative binomial regression. A significant national increase in hospital admission rates was observed during the studied period, with increases of 160.8% for retinopathy, 126.4% for eye and appendage diseases, and 122.8% for glaucoma. State-level heterogeneity was extreme, with variations spanning from -93.1% to +3588% for glaucoma, for example. Even so, regional disparities were observed throughout the period; the South region reported an average 43.2% higher than the national average for retinopathies, and the Southeast 28.5% higher for eye and adnexal diseases, while the North region reported the lowest rates. Projections up to 2036 predict a further national increase of up to +377.0% for retinopathies, with interventions covering more than an order of magnitude. In addition to the temporal projection, rates in state, age, and year components on a logarithmic scale with calibrated uncertainty were verified. Out-of-sample tests show that the chosen modeling outperforms the last observed value maintenance method and naive linear extrapolation in all three diseases considered. Thus, the escalating, age-driven burden of ophthalmological diseases and profound geographic disparities highlight an urgent need to decentralize specialized care and target resource allocation within the public health system.