Historically Small Population Size Limits Purging of Deleterious Mutations in a Conservation-Reliant Species, the Kirtlands Warbler

Strong population contractions can leave a persistent genomic legacy that can influence populations long after their demographic recovery. While bottlenecks facilitate the removal of strongly deleterious mutations, the effectiveness of purging may be limited in historically small populations. The Kirtlands warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii) is a rare North American songbird with an ancestrally small population. After narrowly evading extinction, they are one of few species that have been delisted from federal protections in the USA. Despite their recovery, a previous study showed evidence for recent inbreeding and a high burden of deleterious mutations that may have not been purged despite strong bottlenecks. Historical DNA offers a unique opportunity to understand the consequences of recent demographic declines on genetic diversity. Here, we use DNA from over 100-year-old museum specimens to estimate changes in genetic load in the Kirtlands warblers pre- and post-bottleneck. We validate our results with forward-in-time genetic simulations and explore how sample size and missing data can affect estimates. Both empirical data and simulations suggest a reduced ability to purge deleterious mutations in this historically small population. Our simulations also highlight that limited sampling design and data quality can constrain the ability to detect changes.