Spatial Patterns and Determinants of Climate Change Awareness and Implications for Humanitarian Health Response in Nigeria: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of a Nationally Representative Survey

Objectives To explore the prevalence, spatial aggregation, and demographic correlates of climate change awareness among adults in Nigeria, as well as impacts on humanitarian health preparedness. Design Nationally representative cross-sectional survey with multivariate logistic regression and Global Moran's I and LISA techniques of spatial autocorrelation analyses was applied. Setting All 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria. Participants 1,600 adults drawn from the Afrobarometer Round 9 nationally representative survey. Interventions None. Main Outcome Measures Prevalence, spatial aggregation, and demographic correlates of climate change awareness among adults in Nigeria, and impacts on humanitarian health preparedness. Results Less than one in three Nigerians (30.1%) was aware of climate change, significantly lower than the 65% found in the continent, and education is the most predictive factor, with tertiary-educated Nigerians more than ten times more likely to be aware of climate change than those with no formal education. Most critically, the poor performance in government climate policies is not found in low-awareness states, but in two geographically distinct risk corridors based on a different mechanism and requiring a different policy response. Conclusions The finding shows that the gap in climate awareness is not a communication problem, it is a structural problem - one that requires a national intervention to reduce and close, but that might not be enough because of educational inequality, gender disparity and geographic marginalization. To prepare the country for humanitarian needs, targeted state-level, gender-responsive programming based on Nigeria's Climate Change Act 2021 is required, and effective intervention to make adaptation to the health impacts of climate change happen will need to start with triggering awareness into adaptive health action before climate hazards surpass the country's humanitarian response capacity. Registration Not applicable. Keywords: Climate change awareness; spatial autocorrelation; humanitarian health preparedness; educational inequality; Nigeria