Benchmarking foundation models for improving confounding control in target trial emulation
Kleper, S. L.; Melamed, R. D.
Show abstract
Machine learning models for causal inference aim to adjust for confounding factors that are associated with both an exposure and an outcome, creating a spurious biased association. But, these methods are rarely empirically evaluated to assess their success in mitigating such bias. Recent advances in knowledge representation, including both foundation models and knowledge graphs, could enrich these models, but rigorous evaluations are needed in order to assess their potential. Here, we ask whether enriching existing causal inference models with knowledge representations from foundation models can improve confounding control. Rather than using semi-simulated data to address this question, we focus on examples of real confounding: we emulate target randomized active comparator trials that are subject to confounding by indication. Our results can guide researchers aiming to develop or apply methods for discovering causal effects from observational data.
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