The response of leaf litter bacterial communities to simulated drought depends on temperature

Microbial communities regulate carbon and nitrogen (N) cycling, yet their long-term responses to chronic global changes remain unclear. Using 12 years of grassland litter samples from the Loma Ridge Global Change Experiment in Irvine, California, we tested whether interactions between experimental drought and N deposition, and previously observed temporal variability are driven by background climatic conditions, including precipitation and temperature. Consistent with short-term studies, drought and N addition had relatively small effects on bacterial community composition compared to pronounced seasonal and interannual variability, with drought-by-year interactions explaining more variation than drought alone. Seasonal shifts were largely driven by short-term fluctuations in rainfall and temperature, whereas the substantial interannual variability in community composition was not captured by site-level climate metrics. Contrary to expectations, drought effects were influenced more by background temperature than precipitation, with the strongest effects observed in cooler years. Lastly, a bacterial taxons sensitivity to climate variability under ambient conditions did not predict its response to chronic drought. Together, our findings show that bacterial responses to drought are temporally dynamic and influenced by background temperature, underscoring the need for long-term longitudinal studies of soil microbial communities to better predict microbial responses under future global change. ImportanceMicrobial responses to global change, particularly drought and nitrogen addition, are often inferred from short-term studies (< 2 years), yet natural temporal variability may overshadow experimental effects. Using a 12-year dataset of grassland leaf litter communities, we show that temporal variability, both seasonal and interannual, exert a stronger influence on bacterial community composition than chronic drought or nitrogen deposition. These findings challenge assumptions about the magnitude of drought effects, particularly in naturally drought-affected ecosystem such as California grasslands and highlight the importance of long-term datasets for predicting microbial responses to climate change. By demonstrating that bacterial communities are strongly shaped by background climatic variability (baseline precipitation and temperature independent of imposed chronic treatments) and may be buffered to sustained drought, this work improves forecasts of ecosystem responses and informs the design of global change experiments and restoration strategies in future research studies.