Extracting Parsimonious Quantitative Predictors of Biological Effectiveness from 'First-Principles' Radiobiology: Application to the Mixed-Quality Problem

Developing parsimonious, mechanism-aware quantitative models that predict how biological effectiveness changes with different modifiers remains, in general, an unsolved problem. Advances in radiobiological research have created a large knowledge base of first-principles mechanistic models of radiation response that, in principle, could accurately predict radiosensitivity across different experimental and clinical conditions. However, in practice these mechanistic models come with an overabundance of parameters, the majority of which are practically unidentifiable and, moreover, likely unnecessary if one simply wishes to predict how radiosensitivity changes for some specific modifier of interest. Nevertheless, determining which few details in the full mechanistic model are relevant for a given purpose, as well as how to remove any other extraneous details, remains a highly non-trivial task. In this study, we demonstrate the potential of model reduction, starting from a detailed mechanistic description, as a systematic strategy for deriving parsimonious, experimentally falsifiable radiobiological descriptors. As a proof-of-concept demonstration, we apply the Manifold Boundary Approximation Method (MBAM) to a Mechanistic Model of DNA Repair and Survival (MEDRAS), for the problem of cell survival prediction following an acute exposure. Our findings reveal that the complete MEDRAS model for an arbitrary mixed-quality exposure can be structurally simplified to a reduced three-parameter model for an effective uniform-quality, named MEDRAS-LPL. Additional MBAM analysis on MEDRAS-LPL identifies two boundaries in parameter space, corresponding to sparsely ionizing and densely ionizing radiation. Mapping of MEDRAS-LPL parameter space on to effective LQ space further demonstrates that parameters close to the sparsely ionizing boundary line up with expectations from the theory of dual radiation, while parameters close to the densely ionizing boundary line up with expectations from a purely linear model based on a target-theory description. Moreover, our formalism predicts enhanced synergistic interactions between sparsely ionizing and densely ionizing radiation beyond the Zaider Rossi model (ZRM) paradigm, in line with empirical observations. The results highlight the potential for using reduced-order models not only for predictive applications but also for generating novel hypotheses that can inform future experimental designs and optimization strategies in radiobiology.