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Designing welfare-maximising financing for publicly-provisioned digital child-health platforms: A mixed-methods policy simulation from Thailands KhunLook application

Lounkaew, K.

2026-05-04 health economics
10.64898/2026.04.26.26351784 medRxiv
Show abstract

National digital health platforms are scaling faster than the evidence on how to finance them. This paper develops a welfare-simulation framework that converts a published willingness-to-pay (WTP) distribution into a prescriptive pricing recommendation, applied to Thailands KhunLook maternal-and-child-health application. Predicted WTP values at the 25th, 50th and 75th unconditional quantiles and the OLS mean -- drawn from a survey of n = 680 Thai parents and relatives of young children previously reported in Lounkaew et al. (2025) -- enter the simulation as parametric inputs. Quintile-level WTP is imputed by monotone-cubic interpolation, a population of 250,000 caregivers is drawn from truncated-Normal distributions around the quintile means, and five financing scenarios are compared: full public provision (S1), a flat market-priced fee (S2), freemium (S3), fine-grained income-tiered pricing (S4), and a means-tested subsidy with a flat fee for the top 60% (S5). A thematic reading of Thai digital-health policy documents bounds the institutionally feasible scenario set and anchors the interpretation of the simulation numbers. Full public provision maximises total welfare at 437.4 million THB but runs a five-year fiscal deficit. The means-tested subsidy gives up about 15% of that welfare to recover 198.6 million THB in net producer surplus, distributes consumer surplus toward lower-income quintiles (concentration index -0.258), and plugs into the existing Thai state welfare card register at near-zero marginal administrative cost. The ranking holds across all twelve sensitivity specifications. Administrative simplicity in subsidy targeting, read against the Thai WTP distribution, dominates finer-grained tiering on both welfare and equity grounds. The framework transfers cleanly to other middle-income countries deciding how to price a national digital health platform. Author summaryMany middle-income-country governments now run free national smartphone apps for the health of mothers and young children, but the funding model is increasingly fragile as initial donor and research grants run out. The question this paper asks is simple: if such a platform had to start charging, what pricing structure would raise the most money without locking out the families who need the app most? Using a published Thai survey of 680 parents and relatives of young children, the paper simulates five alternative designs -- free, flat fee, freemium, fine-tiered by income quintile, and a means-tested subsidy -- and finds that offering the bottom 40% of households free access while charging the top 60% a flat 395 Thai baht per year (roughly USD 11) captures 85% of the welfare of the status-quo free model, generates 199 million baht of fiscal surplus over five years, and distributes benefits toward lower-income users rather than toward the well-off. The design works because Thailands state welfare card register already identifies the low-income target population, so means-testing is essentially free to administer. Other countries with comparable social registries can apply the same logic to their own digital health platforms.

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