GIRAF 1.0: A unified global framework to anticipate plant pest invasions
Plex Sula, A. I.; Batuman, O.; Cellier, G.; Dufault, N. S.; Etherton, B. A.; Hodges, A.; Lowe-Power, T.; McVay, J. D.; Penca, C.; Schroeder, K.; Stilian, E.; Suder, P.; Takeuchi, Y.; Tonnang, H. E. Z.; Wang, Y.; Garrett, K. A.
Show abstract
Plant pests threaten 10-40% of global food production, resulting in $55-220 billion in annual economic losses. Despite these escalating risks, biosecurity remains largely reactive, lacking anticipatory frameworks that integrate pest-specific drivers governing transboundary spread. We present GIRAF 1.0 (Global Invasion Risk Assessment Framework), the first quantitative, data-driven system that unifies pest-specific multi-host landscapes, abiotic suitability, and global trade networks with international phytosanitary policies. We applied GIRAF to four globally devastating pests - ranging from viral to insect taxa - to reconstruct a century of transcontinental spread and generate the first multiscale atlases of future invasion potential. GIRAF reveals that 22-37% of Earths land surface can contain host communities that largely overlap with environmentally suitable hotspots. Over 115 countries are highly vulnerable to trade-mediated pest introductions despite adopted phytosanitary policies. GIRAF provides a foundation for proactive surveillance and pandemic preparedness, offering a scalable path for transnational biosecurity agencies and global food industries.
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