A composite measure of cerebral small vessel disease predicts cognitive change after stroke

Post-stroke cognitive recovery is difficult to predict using focal lesion characteristics alone. The brains capacity to maintain cognitive function depends also on structural integrity of the whole brain. One way to measure brain health is through the severity of cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) markers, which reflect aging-related pathologies that erode structural integrity. Here, we propose a composite measure of CSVD (cCSVD) integrating three independently validated biomarkers automatically quantified using T1-weighted MRIs: white matter hyperintensity volume (WMH; representing vascular injury), perivascular space count (PVS; putative glymphatic clearance), and brain-predicted age difference (brain-PAD; structural atrophy). We hypothesize that cCSVD, which captures the shared variance across these CSVD biomarkers, will be a robust indicator of whole-brain structural integrity and predict cognitive changes 3 months after stroke. We analyzed 65 early subacute stroke survivors with assessments within 21 days (baseline) and at 90 days (follow-up) post-stroke. WMH volume, PVS count, and brain-PAD were quantified from baseline T1-weighted MRIs, and then residualized for age, sex, days since stroke, and intracranial volume. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the residualized biomarkers was used to derive cCSVD. Beta regression with stability selection using LASSO was used to model three outcomes: baseline Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) scores, follow-up MoCA scores, and longitudinal change (follow-up score adjusted for baseline score). Logistic regression was used to test if baseline cCSVD predicted improvement in those with baseline cognitive impairment (MoCA < 26). The PCA revealed that the first principal component (PC1) explained 43.1% of the total variance among WMH volume, PVS count, and brain-PAD. The three biomarkers contributed nearly equally to PC1, which was subsequently used as the baseline cCSVD score. Lower baseline cCSVD was significantly associated with better MoCA scores at follow-up ({beta} = -0.19, p = 0.009), even after adjusting for baseline MoCA ({beta} = -0.12, p = 0.042), and, importantly, outperformed all individual biomarkers. Furthermore, lower cCSVD at baseline significantly increased the likelihood of improving to cognitively unimpaired status at three months (OR = 0.34, p = 0.036), independent of age and education. The composite CSVD captures the additive impact of vascular injury, glymphatic dysfunction, and structural atrophy on recovery in a way that individual measures do not. cCSVD accounts for shared variance across these domains, reflecting a patients latent capacity for cognitive recovery, where relative integrity in one CSVD domain may mitigate effects of another. This automated, T1-based framework offers a scalable tool for predicting post-stroke recovery.