Multimodal MRI and Machine Learning Uncovers Distinct Progression Patterns in Friedreich Ataxia

Background Friedreich ataxia (FRDA) is a rare neurodegenerative disorder with substantial heterogeneity in clinical presentation and progression, complicating prognosis and trial design. Neuroimaging offers objective biomarkers to track disease evolution, yet variability in progression patterns remains poorly understood. Objective To identify biologically meaningful FRDA progression subtypes using longitudinal multimodal MRI and assess their associations with demographic, genetic, and clinical factors. Methods Longitudinal structural and diffusion MRI data from 54 FRDA and 57 controls were analysed. Annualised progression rates of macrostructural (volumetric) and microstructural (diffusion) features across cerebellum, brainstem, and spinal cord regions were clustered using Gaussian Mixture Models. Cluster robustness was assessed using per-cluster Jaccard similarity and other validation metrics. Random Forest classification examined predictors of cluster membership. Results Three reproducible clusters/subtypes emerged: micro-dominant/dual progression, characterised by widespread microstructural deterioration with modest volumetric decline; macro-dominant, marked by pronounced volumetric decline with minimal microstructural change; and minimal/no progression, showing negligible change in all measures. FRDA participants predominated in the first two clusters. Random Forest prediction of cluster membership using clinical and demographic variables identified length of the trinucleotide repeat expansion in the FXN gene as key predictor. Conclusions Data-driven clustering of longitudinal MRI identified distinct FRDA subtypes with unique co-progression patterns, underscoring genetic burden as a key driver. Recognising such heterogeneity can improve patient stratification, enable personalised monitoring, and guide targeted therapeutic strategies. Future studies should validate these subtypes in larger, more diverse cohorts and integrate additional biomarkers for enhanced precision.