Menopausal hormone therapy at age 45 to 60 years old, future dementia or cognitive decline: Systematic review and meta-analysis

ObjectiveTo examine whether menopausal women who initiate systemic menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) around menopause (45-60 years old) have a different risk of developing dementia than those not taking MHT. DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and longitudinal observational studies. Risk of bias was assessed using ROB-2 and ROBINS I-V2. Data sourcesMEDLINE, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library to 27 March 2026. Eligibility criteria for selecting studiesStudies which measured dementia or cognitive decline in women who initiated systemic MHT between ages 45-60 or within 5 years of menopause, compared with placebo or no MHT. Authors contacted for additional details if needed. Main outcome measuresDementia, Alzheimers disease (AD), cognitive decline. Results10 studies totalling 213,678 participants (189,525 in studies with the primary population). There was no significant increased risk in women with a uterus for all cause dementia (pooled hazard ratio (HR): 1.12; 95% CI 0.91-1.31, N=78,613, I2 = 96.9%), but increased AD risk (HR: 1.14; 95% CI 1.02, 1.29, N=134,865, I2 = 35.6%). Results were similar in sensitivity analyses including women with or without a uterus. Results for cognitive decline were variable. ConclusionsMHT initiated around the age of menopause should not be prescribed for cognition or dementia prevention. It is not protective against dementia and may increase risk slightly. The magnitude of risk was similar in AD and dementia, but the latter with larger confidence intervals. Studies which followed up individuals rather than on health records lost people to follow up. This may account for difference in cognitive decline outcomes between studies, as people with cognitive impairment and dementia are more likely not to attend. MHT prescribing should balance benefits against risks, including evidence of a small increased dementia risk. There are few high-quality studies, so further research would inform recommendations. Systematic review registration Prospero CRD420251010663 What is already known on this topic?O_LIMenopausal hormone therapy (MHT) is effective for alleviating vasomotor symptoms. Contemporary guidelines recommend treatment should be initiated for such symptoms under age 60 and or within 10 years of menopause onset. C_LIO_LIA large randomised trial on the topic found increased risk of dementia in women initiating MHT after the age of 65. C_LIO_LIIt is unknown whether initiating MHT around the age of menopause impacts the risk of dementia or cognitive decline. C_LI What this study addsO_LIThere was no evidence that taking MHT around the time of menopause decreases the risk of dementia or cognitive impairment. C_LIO_LIThey should not be prescribed for these indications. C_LIO_LIWe were able to find more studies which examine this question by contacting authors for additional data. C_LIO_LIInitiating MHT in women with a uterus around the age of menopause increased the risk of Alzheimers disease slightly, by over 10%, and there is a similar but not significant effect in the fewer studies of all cause dementia. Women with or without a uterus show similar results. C_LIO_LIWe found no significant difference shown in cognitive decline, possibly due to loss to follow up. This may be because most studies of cognitive decline follow up C_LI